Just speaking my mind here. I know MT is mainstream, but they don't take Z seriously in my opinion. Maybe as a way to sell and make money they do, but they aren't serious about scale models in Z scale and are barely serious about it in N scale. Now those HO cars Kadee makes look nice! Look at the stirrups on the new PS-2 covered hopper. Why didn't they make them from Delrin and more to scale with a step on the right side? They know how to do it, they do it in N with their open hoppers and Z with other cars. I mention this because it is a newly tooled and MFG'd car not some 20 year old mold. They recently decided "hey this is good enough" After all that I doubt I would be in Z without MT. I take what I can get. Really the few cars (reefers) I have from PennZee seem better scale wise than MT cars. Most times it is just as easy to cut a mold "to scale" than it is to cut it out of scale. A lot of times I think they really think people won't care. (Hey it's sooooo small) So PennZee gets a thumbs up, but hey! make more cars : ) (hint, 2 bay offset side hoppers that aren't $70 a piece) And MT track with ballast...how is that a good thing? Sure it will probably get a few people to start up in Z and that is good, but then what? I have a loop of it for testing and it's not a bad quality track, but I don't want to build a layout out of it. Just like my N scale track isn't Kato. If you wanna make me flip back in my chair announce C40 flex track with correct ties in 36" lengths! Don't need no stinking sectional track. Turnouts? I won't ask, but yes I would take them too. Anyways I like what I can do with Z so far. If my era negated me buying a brass locomotive for $500 I wouldn't have a Z scale layout. If for some reason my handlayed track failed I wouldn't have a Z scale layout. If Robert didn't have a laser...(sorry didn't mean to scare anyone) Again sorry for crashing Searail's topic.
Mike- The "magic number" for cutting hard tooling is anywhere from one (1) upwards...... it just depends how much you want to sell each piece for. With hard tooling ranging anywhere from a fraction of to multiples of $100,000.00 (range depending on is it a flat plate tool, multiple slide, how complex, mechanism, etc.,etc.) it is not realistic to say that "300" is the magic number.....most "mainstream" or "major" manufacturers won't consider a roadnumber change at that level much less a different paint job or roadname on an existing product in any other scale. It has been 30 years and still no Walthers, Atlas, Lionel, Bachmann, Athearn, InterMountain, Model Power, LifeLike, etc..is jumping into the Scale. Are all these manufacturers just stupid? Don't be dazzeled by growth rates..... when you start with a very low base any additions tend to be high percentages. Walk into your average hobby shop and look for the Z Scale Department..... after 40 years most still don't even do a decent job with N Scale! I'm not belittling Z Scale at all....I understand the passion and have made all the same arguments with N Scale. But N Scale had a base of "major" manufacturers that were making toy trains in a slot-car type craze as a jumpstart for the scale and I don't see any similar critical mass happening in Z.... no matter how nice SOME of the products you are getting. What evidence does anyone have that would convince one of my clients to invest in Z Scale production locomotives and cars? Or to put it simply, would you be willing to convince your wife that your retirement savings and a second mortgage on your house would make a safe smart investment in a company that would have to be funded in the high six figures to start launching production (not $400 limited run locomotives but more in the range of $100) locomotives and cars for this expanding Z Scale market????? Charlie Vlk Railroad Model Resources
Bill, No I am not angry. We as Z scalers see this all the time.It is very easy to judge the scale especially if you are unfamiliar with all that is available. I think you are wrong on not counting the brass as mainstream. AZL's brass helped grow US interest in Z. These locos were not meant to sit on a shelf, but to run! This had a huge impact on the growth of the scale. You may have the point on Robert kits, but then again, Robert has limited production. Of course, we may see his kits on the market again very soon. I think a better judge is the investment dollars companies are putting into Z. AZL, MTL and Full Throttle all are making large investments. A lot of new items are planned. I think this winter will be amazing when it comes to new releases. Rob
Charlie, Let me ask you this. Would you rather put investment dollars in a scale that is already bloated with products and manufacturers or invest in a scale that is in completely open and ready to grow. It is that small fish big pond or big fish small pond question. Charlie, you may not know who I am. But I am one of those people you mention above. I have banked my future on Z scale, and I am succeeding. I also have seen the success of the manufacturers. I know them and I work with them. I wish I could share real numbers with you, but I can't for confidentially reasons. I understand your questioning of Z scale, but spend some time looking at the products, the quality, the layouts, the modules and our publication. True, you will see a young scale, but a growing one. Email me offline and I will be glad to send you a sample issue of Ztrack Magazine. Hopefully it will help you see Z in an all new light. ztrack@aol.com Rob Kluz
Let me say this: If I've the choice between a Volkswagon (MTL, Märklin) and a Ferrari (AZL), I'll take the Ferrari!
Actually, that's not really a fair question, both for the reason that Rob K gave (cottage manufacturer) and for one other key reason, they are kits. Not everybody has the time to build a roster of kits, or the ability. A better question would be has PennZee sold 300 (your number, not mine) of a single car type, or of a single livery in that car type. Or has Full Throttle. The answer there is yes. And, I would imagine that it would take selling thousands of cars to justify an injection mold, unless you wanted to charge hundreds of dollars each. As for brass being main-stream, that's all relative. I personally only have two of AZL's brass locs, but I know several people that have many. Brass is more "elite" in other scales because of the quantity of lower priced options out there. In Z, the existing modellers were already used to paying a bit more for things, so the price of brass didn't hurt as much. So, in Z, brass is main-stream, just upper main stream. But, the relative success of these high dollar brass items has opened the door for AZL to invest in injection molded locs in higher numbers. This will enable Z to be in reach to even more people. And it also puts AZL firmly into the "Lower-main-stream" market. And, if MTL, PZ, FT and AZL keep up their current rate of new releases, maybe brass will become elite in Z scale as well. MTL has repeatedly sold out of their monthly runs, Full Throttle has had to delay future releases to keep up with demand for their current releases and do reprints, PennZee continues to have success with anything they release, AZL's SD-70s are flying off the shelves, and I expect their coal porters to sell out as soon as they hit the street. These are all injection molded, they are all produced in mass quantities, and they are all doing well. Is Z viable? Dan S.
We are a very vocal group it's true. Z Scale is very captivating, and we find small trains that look nice and detailed are jewels to be admired. As far as future prospects for Z? Well, it is growing, not just stagnating like some of the other scales. One big thing Z has going for it is it's size. A modeler can model vast empires in a small space, a collector can build large collections, and display them without overrunning his home. And although I have no statistical proof, I feel much more spousal acceptance towards Z Scale trains than HO or N, as the women really seem to like them, calling them "Cute". At our trains shows the women seem to spend much more time examining Z Scale trains on our modules than the N and HO modular layouts. They are not stupid, they are just not interested in growing a market for later harvest when they can turn quick tricks on N and HO modelers for a quick return on investment. They are in business for the business, and we all know there is no compassion in business. Z Scale is being driven by a passion for the scale (Like AZL), and growth will have to come from that passion, or from compaines like MTL who already have an investment in the Z marketplace, that want to keep their facility fully utilized in case of a slowdown of growth in N Scale. I would think Z Scale has the potental to reach a critical mass just like N Scale did, and at that time the major players will start to take notice.
In many ways I changed to Z scale from N because I saw an MT 2-6-0 in SP with a vandy tender and thought hey, that is cool. At that time there was not one available in N. It set me back $500. But here is the real kicker. I think I get more joy out of getting that loco to run at smooth slow speeds with a jorger speed controller and a guagemaster than running any kato or atlas N scale loco at slow speeds. I still have my N layout. I doubt I'll buy anything new in that scale. Z just seems fresh. Less grumpy people. Personally I wish everything was more prototypical. The problem is this, to get more prototyipical, people have to complain. In Z we are so happy to just get products so we don't complain as much. I think that is the only difference. Trust me we see what guys like Robert, and Chris do to make cars look right. It is amazing. I am all for people wanting more prototypical products. In the meantime I think we take what we can get and work on our modeling skills to get the right look. When a project is completed there is a satisfaction that just can't be matched in other scales.
this is an interesting discussion. i'm hearing: "is Z good enough?" "will Z make it into the big time?" "why aren't more manufacturers jumping in?" "it's too nice to begin with!" "it's not nice enough!" i'm having more fun in Z than i ever did in N -- and that's saying something, because i loved the N-trak early days, mall shows, n-scale clubs, Atlas engines, Intermountain's products, etc. i didn't really plan to make a complete jump to Z ... i just wanted to play with it. when i heard MTL would make a road-switcher that was all i needed. i wanted a small switching layout (timesaver). eight cars, one engine -- and a nice module. that was the end of my dream. i couldn't wait to see if the GP35 would be any good. if it had even been as loud and noisy as the F units, i'd still have been satisfied. and then i found that SWEET, SWEET running GP-35! and with it came you guys, and roberts kits, MTLs new releases, tim's handiwork, and all the fun topics and discussions on this (and other) Z sites. i haven't looked back. i love making engines and cars and trying to make them as nicely detailed as i can. but i hate laying track so i'm planning on using MTL track because it's easy and reliable. that's my "compromise" and i couldn't be more satisfied with it. i'm a happy camper!!! one day, in the midst of putting fans on an N scale loco, i saw that the N 36" fan were just about right to fit to the GP35's fans. bingo -- we all started doing it and BLMA is now celebrating with us and releasing new products for us. craig martin did this because WE were having SO MUCH FUN and loving what we were doing. AZL is committed, pennzee too. i am sure other manufacturers are watching the progress. no doubt they have quotas and bottom lines, ad infinitum -- but even THEY want to love what they're doing. i say "quit worrying! just keep celebrating and having fun!" let's not over analyze this -- just keep singing and dancing and the crowds will gather. and if they don't -- it's not going to keep ME from enjoying the friendship, the new projects, the challenge, or the fun. WHO WOULDN'T WANT TO BE A PART OF THE GREAT TIME WE'RE HAVING? i appreciate charlie vlk's questions and observations, but i'm not troubled by them. so what if the world thinks our trains are too small -- as long as we enjoy what we're going, sooner or later they're going to say "what the hell ... " and jump in with us, grinning all the way! THIS is where it's at! where we are is exactly where people WANT to be in their hobby. it's going to get better and better. i don't think it can be helped. dave f.
whew! ... so ... when might we see some of these new shells? i'm ready to get started on a Rio Grande RS-2(3)!
Nah, they just have old farts like you working there! Atleast one of the companies you've mentioned has mentioned bringing a Z freight car to market to test the waters. And I have a Lionel turbine sitting on my shelf here already... :w20z6q:
If you approach the economics of making anything for the Model Railroad Market (any scale) from a Business Perspective the numbers become very difficult very fast. This assumes you are not talking about a Business as a Hobby where the people involved work for their own gratification or just to get something made for themselves and spread the cost out over others who might want it too. There is nothing wrong with that except that unless the demand volume is so great that the business can transition to a full time real deal it is dependent on a few key people. The volume for a plastic injection mold and all the accessories (trucks, wheels, mechanism, etc...) can easily run into the $250,000.00 range for a simple car. I don't know what kind of deal Bowser's tooling guy cut for the cars made by them but you can do the math and see how much of a surcharge there has to be on what is basically composed of 50 cents per shot pieces of plastic... Belive it or not, the pioneer spirit or whatever you call the satisfaction you get from making something that is unique, difficult, etc.. isn't limited to Z.... N Scalers still can experience that as well as all the scales up from there through Proto48 to Live Steam. But having been there I know and appreciate what you are talking about... I am subborn enough not to go back into HO after fighting to get N to where it is now.... if I get to the point where I can't see or handle it anymore I'll go directly to 1 1/2" Live Steam and skip all the intermediate steps!!! I still would like to get a real handle on what the size of the Z Scale Market is.... are there 2000 Z Scalers??? 500???? 200???. (Not counting the people who bought a Marklin Z Scale set to set up around their miniature holiday bush who don't care about a GP30 vs. a GP7 with Torpedo Tubes...they won't be buying fleets of future releases). Even though a manufacturer can become a big fish in a small pond, the question is will there be enough life in that pond to support anybody that dives in??? By the way, the idea that this thread was based on, of Rapid Prototyped conversion shells for Z Scale is a good one.... I'd certainly suggest anything that fits on the MTL chassis or can be supplied with new frames to reuse the trucks, etc.. to make something scale. One word of advice is not to be so needy that you'll accept anything close to Z Scale.... there are motors and other components that allow you to have accurate models....don't let them say "it's good enough for Z Scale... because once it is tooled it will be around for a while!!! From the work I've seen posted here Z Scale doesn't have to go through an Arnold Rapido decade (or it already has with Marklin). Charlie Vlk Railroad Model Resources
Just saw young whippersnapper Mike Skibbe's post.... I admit to being an old fart.... but young ones seem to have all the answers but don't have the right questions. Luckily Mike (who, if you don't know I've counted as a friend before he started High School along with his father who is also a talented Model Railroader) isn't one of those and (I think) had his tongue in cheek as he recovers from having prepared a Z Scale layout for his Open House this weekend and I didn't even take the bait and ask "where's the layout" when taking the nickel tour of his new house.... Charlie Vlk
Exactly! Back then corners were cut because there was no other way. Now with improved technology we don't have to go through that, we can go right to "correct" and skip "close enough". How long did it take the Athearn HO scale GP35's hood to finally slim down in width to scale size? How's come a seemingly small company like AZL can figure out how to get a motor in a scale width hood, but MT can not? True, and people don't seem to like complainers so much.
So how large is the Z market? We estimate in the tens of thousands globally. Yes, folks, 10,000+. Now, many of these folks may only own starter sets or run trains seasonally, but they are still into Z. Other facts, the Z_Scale Yahoo forum has 1,800 members. Ztrack Magazine has a total circulation of over 1,600. These are active Z scalers. Our own records have the names of 1000s of individuals who are involved in Z scale or were at one time. Manufacturers like MTL and AZL are selling 1000s of locomotives. Maybe not of one type, but still, it is significant. I can only imaging how many cars MTL has sold. Here is another good point. Z scalers love and demand quality. Just because Z is small, it does not mean we cut corners on quality and details. For one, there is NO compression in Z. Full length passenger cars and locos. Hey, let's face it, we don't need to compress. So what about AZL offering prototypical width hoods and how did they do it? Frankly, it is a great story. The went back to their brass roots. By creating a hybrid loco, they can take advantage of injection while using brass to create accurate width shells. It is really a neat technique. Rob
Sure would be interested in how the figure 10,000 is arrived at. 1,600 ZTrack circulation I believe includes ALL the issues Walthers sends out. My LHS who is a pretty large train dealer has sold only one ZTrack issue since he started finding them in his multi-weekly delivery of merchandise. The big question is how many ZTrack readers BUY Z Scale stuff. Last year I asked Rob to put me in touch with some Zers in this area. A couple contacted me, but not a one had even picked up a piece of foam. Yahoo did just pass 1,800 members, but many of those sign on just to look at the photos and never return. Possibly they are from other scales. Further the message count is way down from some previous years, and the trend line this year is steeply down. Last month the same LHS rearranged his inventory. I asked him last week if we (Z) got 500 square feet of space or 0.05. He said not quite 0.05 [the space needed for a GP35]. He KNOWS the market, he has seen some of the kits I have put together, he has played with a couple of DCC engines I have - BUT he is NOT ready to spend money for Z inventory. He did have a tiny Z-Scale starter kit [possibly Marklin] a couple of years ago and it took hm nearly 2 years to sell it when it was sold this past spring. I don't know why anyone starting out with a new layout would not want to go into Z instead of larger N or HO. They can give a lot of reasons. I just don't think we are mainstream yet, but based upon the number of times "Z" is mentioned in current ads, we are on a "roll" - but a long way from "Front & Center". Until a few more named manufacturers jump in the market will probably stay small. The manufacturers have to create the market and create the demand. Just like a lot of other things we buy - we don't NEED them, but the desire to have what "everybody" else has makes the market. My nickle's worth. ...don
Just for the record, I agree with everything Rob has said. I make the same arguments for N. I would discount the "trainset" crowd a little though....that is one of the basis for the inordinately large dominance of HO in any comparision of scales..... they count the HO Set Production that never gets into the hands of somebody that develops into a Model Railroader. For N and Z, where the size and price pretty much preselects more dedicated Model Railroaders, the trainset crowd is more of a distraction than it is a base of revenue for any manufacturers. In the early days of a Scale (O, S, OO, HO, TT, N, or Z) any quality items will get snatched up by the starving masses....(when there were only a few new good running locos coming out a year those Con-Cor PAs in GN Empire Builder colors sure looked good!!!). But with a base of 2000 you aren't going to sell (on average) one of every item to everybody. What the percentage reallly will be is tricky....highly dependent on prototype selection (era, builder, roadname, paint scheme) and price/value. (worldwide sales are nice but in the scheme of things may not be a big factor....Marklin, LGB, Rivarossi, Roco are all in financial trouble so the Euopeans aren't going to be a significant proportion of sales....or if they are there is a problem with domestic numbers)... I agree with Don. Z runs pretty good compared to the other scales but is just starting out and doesn't have the range of choices that N took 40 years to build up....and N lags far behind HO and may never catch up. This is a reason people go into HO over N and is certainly a negative for going into Z..... the lack of variety. The good thing is there is only one direction to go...up!! Charlie Vlk Railroad Model Resources
It's hard to base the sales potential when a shop carries a single item in that scale. Chances are, nobody went into the shop looking for Z scale, and if they did, that one item wasn't what they needed. It would take time to build up the inventory, and get the word out that the shop supported Z scale. But will customers show up even then? Chicken or the Egg... I part-time at a LHS that is mostly into trains. They also carry a few R/C cars, but IMHO it's more hassle than it's maybe worth. We have lots of old kits and RTR cars that we didn't sell that have now been re-released in new and better forms. We don't stock the parts to fix them, and don't have staff members that are into cars enough to keep up with the market place. Shops should do it right if they are going to try at all. Staff, product, and support should all be available or the sales won't support the shop.
Originally Posted by Charlie Vlk Mike- It has been 30 years and still no Walthers, Atlas, Lionel, Bachmann, Athearn, InterMountain, Model Power, LifeLike, etc..is jumping into the Scale. Are all these manufacturers just stupid? Charlie Vlk Railroad Model Resources Mike, I'm curious which company is considering testing the waters of Z? I hadn't heard anything about that yet. Considering the quality, or lack thereof, of some of the early N scale Bachman, LifeLike and Model Power stuff, it might actually have been a blessing to Z to have not gone through that phase. I had heard that Overland was considering doing some brass pieces in Z scale a few years ago but couldn'y use Ajin because AZL was already using them for Z scale. I think there were even photos of a prototype for a Genesis passenger loco on Ajin's website at one point. The "Lionel" UP Veranda Turbine is actually a Hallmark piece licensed by Lionel. I'm not really sure if that counts (even though I've got a few myself). Randy
Let me ask this question as well, do you consider S scale a viable scale? I actually see more Z in hobby shops than I do S. Just curious. Randy
