How do you point out a solution, when there is none? And that is what nobody here is understanding. Once the old way of inventory on shelf, available at any time was broken, this all went into a state of perpetual unknown. We went from certainty, to constant mass confusion. Nobody is going to back up again, so we have what we have, continually unhappy consumers. And this in a hobby where many feel it is on shaky ground. (Hmmm. Is this helping that perceived situation? NO.) So, is it up to the consumer to find any answer to a situation they did not create? While someone out there amongst us end users *might* find an answer, some day, the correct response here is NO.
To paraphrase the old saw about Democracy; the pre-order system is the worst way to run this hobby; except for all the others. One could argue that the “Customer is always right” and manufactures should do it our way. The problem with this is that it would likely leave those manufactures with a “Going out of business” sign on their doors. I’ve only been stung twice by the pre-order system. Once was a Life-Like locomotive when for some reason/s never explained, LL produced about half the total number of C-424s in the SP&S scheme that venders had requested. Don’t let anybody tell you different, lots of people pre-ordered this locomotive and damn few actually got them. The other was when Kato announced an sd40 in Soo Line white and red and then never produced it, but that was back when “Dinosaurs Ruled the Earth”. Though at that time it was much easier for Kato to deliver their products to the U.S.; as Japan had not yet separated from the proto-North American Continent and drifted across the Pacific thus making it a simple road trip. . .but I digress. I didn’t lose any money on either of those but it was annoying to have placed a pre-order then patiently* wait for months only to be given the bird when the day finally arrived. Now there have been several rolling stock items that I have pre-ordered and was somewhat disappointed in the execution of the assembly of said items; chief amongst those disappointments were body mounted couplers that didn’t work and detail parts found rattling around in the jewel case. The worst was a tank car where the cross-beam with the bolster pin hole, was glued on so crooked that when the truck was attached only one wheel set was touching the rails. Thay had to go back to the vender who had to pony up a refund as he didn’t have any replacements. Oh well, such is life and I got over it and moved on, but it might have been nice had I been able to actually examine the delivered product beforehand, known of the problem/s and been able to make my buy/no buy decision based on said examination. I do have one question and perhaps Puddington can answer this for me; how is it that the companies that make our structures can produce new stuff without pre-ordering and the shops etc don’t seem to have any problem having these items sitting on their shelves for months or years? I know this is comparing Apples to Orangutans but perhaps somebody can explain why the difference. *Patience is not a virtue; Patience is the fifth Halliwell sister.
I'll let Pud answer in his own words. But my guess is: - Cheaper to produce and in larger runs. So they can afford to stockpile. Whereas a production line that produces a limited run locomotive has to be re-purposed for the next "new" thing as soon as the run is complete. And any second or third runs later have to come at the expense, or delay, or another "new" product down the road. - Margins on structures are much wider. They can make more $ per item than a locomotive. So you can't have locomotives sitting on store shelves for months or years at a time without a heavy burden on local retailers. It's just not worth it. - Much of the scenery related stock HAS actually been sitting there for years at a time. Either these items were obtained by the retailer during the 'fat times' years ago, or, they were burned with an overzealous employee doing the ordering. Yes, Orangutans and Apples.
I think possible soultions where discussed on page 1 of this thread...and almost every page thereafter....hmmmmm
Make everything that everyone wants, and in plentiful, continuous, supplies like milk and the supermarket. LOL!
I suppose its just as easy for a maufacturer to ignore or dismiss possible solutions as it is for the consumer to ignore or dismiss the whole preorder fiasco....
As someone with extensive Supply Chain experience for hardware, the transition over the past couple decades to a leaner inventory profile has been difficult to manage, even for the largest of companies. We have some lines still operating in a "build to plan / ship to order" model, while others are in "build to order" model. Both models have fulfillment and inventory management issues, as we compete for part supplies, changes in order loads, orders within lead time, etc. Whether it is a small business, relying on a small fab-shop to produce small quantity of parts; or, one of the largest corporations on the planet, the supply chain management, which is now Global, is a monster to control. Inventory costs money, wherever it is (and not even taking into account local taxation of the asset). Missing customer orders costs money. Shipping poor quality costs money. Creating low customer expectations on delivery performance costs money. I am personally not familiar with how any of the companies supplying the model railroad hobby do their product planning and forecasting. Some clearly are doing a better job than others. In today's environment, though, I would wish that companies don't ask for pre-orders until they are fairly certain that the delivery date is reasonably firm. Some slippage can be reasonably expected and accepted, particularly with good communication. If a product is really just a dream or engineering prototype, it should not be "ready for pre-order". At best, a company could ask for interest, making sure to be honest that it may never happen and that a positive response is in no way a commit, either by distributor or end consumer.
Ok; I'm a dummy.... please use simple language for the dummy manufacturer and explain what possible solution I am dismissing or ignoring.... really; I haven't seen one concrete solution presented so please guide me to what I am missing......
Boxcab, I will agree with Inkaneer in that we should never assume that every good idea on any subject has already been thought of. One way to get rich is to let others assume that everything that has ever been invented has already been invented. I will disagree with him that its entirely a fiasco! Most posts here detail the "one or two times" someone got burned on a pre-order, and many of those simply didn't get made. Most of us have hundreds of freight cars and locos that came from the system, intact. And for the low % of slip ups, there was no guarantee they were ever going to be made in any other system. You had your hopes dashed, but suffered no real damage. Sort of like the question of whether its more painful for your sports team to finish last, or lose the World Series?I do agree with you that it seems likely that the basic system is here to stay. Some replies only want cheap prices, constant availability, manufactures to take on risks themselves but never pass those costs on, while passing on any possible savings they have, except of course, they also need to bring back production to the US....not very demanding are we? As to structures, an LHS dealer told me that Walthers collects orders and when they have 300 they make the next run of a structure. Volumes can't be anywhere near rolling stock, as only 10% of layouts ever get to the full scenery stage according to many reports. It is interesting that they do seem to pick their structures without surveys, but the market was so starved, they probably thought anything would sell pretty well. And, if it sold well in HO, they made it in N, which only gets 25-30% of HO sales in structures (someone in the know posted that some years back) Related thought - when was the last thread on structures around here? Probably several pages back, and I can't recall too many detail critiques, such as the roof was wrong, etc. They do complain that $79.99 seems like a lot for a bunch of plastic, without a motor and any assembly. I think the high cost probably suggests low volume myself. Our passions really lay in the trains themselves, and we work ourselves into a lather on minute details.
One thing to remember here, this all stems from decisions made solely by the business/manufacturing sector. Consumers were not in on this change decision, but are forced to go along for the ride. We went from investing for the long term, to it being instant ROI, or else. Investors expect it. Financiers expect it. Owners have come to expect it. Strange that we went for centuries and even thousands of years successfully doing it otherwise. Within only a few decades, we now live by this fly first try or die ideal.
There is also competition within the scenery structure segment between plastics and the seemingly ever growing laser kit sector. I don't recall if Walthers does anything laser, but all those companies doing wood are certainly going have a direct impact upon how many kits Walthers manufactures. I was never a big fan of WKW kits, and any structures I build these days are mostly laser. N versus HO, we all know the former is smaller than the latter. So naturally 25-30% of HO sales would be expected, but should not be a disappointment.
OK...I did a quick reread of all the replies. #5...#24...#36...#66...#74...#82 all gave examples of alternatives to the preorder. You simply 'dismissed' those alternatives in #41. What more do you want ? I think some manufactures are dead set on the preorder course of action. I also think many consumers are dead set against a preorder system...especially if they have to give CC info just to say (yes) or (no) if they want an item. Skip the middle man...the distrubitors...LHS...etailers...and the guy in the black trenchcoat showing preproduction examples out of the trunk of his beat up Cadillac in a dark alley...and asking for CC info ! Just ask the consumer directly on your webiste if they want (xx)...no CC info required, I guess its a 'mexican standoff'.
I think we have (and maybe should have more) a synergistic relationship with the mfgs. Consumers really drive the business. We are buying less, we want more specialized, etc. etc. etc. They had to change their business model because we don't buy MR stuff like our Dads and Grand dads did. For that matter, read some history! I think the pursuit of profit (legally and otherwise) has been with us a while. I understand that as more Americans invest in the stock market, and demand the companies to be more accountable, there has been a shift to growth and payout. But, these aren't big companies we are talking about hiere. BTW, reading my local paper last night. Developer is planning a mall, but won't start construction until they find at least one anchor tenant, maybe two, and a fair percentage of the smaller stores commit. The developers version of pre-ordering and not committing their cash until sure they have at least most of the return. Pre-orders and testing the waters aren't the sole domain of the model railroad world, as some here would suggest.
What does the developer consider "Commit" ? A simple yes I will..or does the developer want cash from those stores who say they will 'commit' ?
I have yet to be asked to prepay for a preorder in the 15 yrs I've been in N-Scale. And rare instances of this in the past for others still just makes this a strawman argument today since who still does this anymore? Now if you're anti-credit card, then fine, say that. But don't make this an argument about preorders when it's actually a fear of the seller's database security. And who's bank won't cover fraudulent charges these days? Sure, my CC has been compromised in the past. But it was no big deal. The bank cancelled the card, replaced the funds, and issued a new card. Hasn't stopped us one bit from purchasing online for years from hundreds of secure outlets. It's just not that big of a concern. Finally, I'm preordering from the same folks whom I've trusted with that same billing info for years? Why should I suddenly distrust them when I want to preorder a item they don't yet have?
But...in all fairness to your question... If you are NOT prepaying...why do you have to give your credit card info when preordering ????
1. I'm supplying my billing info because the etailer either will not be billing me until the item is shipped, or… 2. They already have my CC info from past purchases, in which case, they will not be billing me until the item is shipped. Either way, I want them to ship the new item at the earliest possible time, which they can't do if they are waiting for me to supply billing information.
So hey...just send em cash 2 years before the item gets to market...they will hold it till the item ships Either way...its tieing up your $$$. You better make sure your CC has the amount that item calls for at all times..ya never know when it might ship. BTW...how long does it take to give em your CC info once they notify you the item is on the way or they are holding the item in their hand waiting to get that CC info from you ? 30 seconds ? 1 minutes tops ? Once again...why do they need your CC info when you preorder...their is no gaurantee you will buy it anyways. You can cancel the second the item is announced as a go from the manufactuer ! A whole lotta people cant afford to tie up money for years in speculation.
I honestly don't know the mechanisms there. In developments I have worked with, there have been letters of intent, earnest money deposits, etc. Even so, I think the principle is the same, and read your post like Glennac did. If you don't like keeping your CC or order, I would bet you could find a vendor who would alert you, and you send a certified check. If you are near an LHS, you could go down and pay cash, which is legal tender for all purchases. You don't have to log in as a customer for most of the major web stores, and can make individual purchases each time and then just submit the CC info, which I presume they don't keep without your permission. I guess I don't know how every vendor handles that, but for sure, no one should order off a non secure site. But your last few posts are getting a bit ridiculous, aren't they? No one takes your money until its time to buy. If you want to squirrel your train money in an account to assure that you have it when it comes, do that. And think about it, if you are tight on funds, and probably buying onesies twosies, it's $120 or so. It seems to me if you can't scrape that up on a month's notice, you might consider that you can't afford model railroading, which I know is harsh, but it is what it is. Sadly, the manufacturers can't go too far out of their way to appease non credit card holders in a credit card world, and people who just don't have extra money to buy their admittedly luxury/non essential products. Back on topic, I wonder if we are really complaining about the wrong thing? Books and magazines have gone to EBooks, and technology exists for publishing on demand for small or independent writers. If 3D printing improves to a sophistication level good enough to match quality of current model railroad shells, it would change the business model. Small companies can transition from tool and die to 3D printing, which may allow production on demand. With CAD, and 3D printing, many variations could probably be made with a minimum of hassle. Want an EJE SD38, after XX rebuild? Why not? Maybe start the design process, and advertise its coming, and then get your 56 other orders. And maybe someone will call in with an order for some ATSF ones (like historical societies organizing the drive for a particular model and you get 300 for that. I suspect such companies would probably still offer models expected to be popular at a certain time for better cash flow as well. I suspect the older companies might be too tied to old ways of production, and motors, etc. still need old fashioned making, but some new company just might figure out a way to use tech to produce what the market seems to want - smaller runs of more and more very specific prototypes. And, storing the CAD drawings takes up no room, and they could probably make them on demand for years as people want them. If there is a will, there is a way for some ingenious entrepreneur. . Now, I'm not saying that cost won't go up even more as a tradeoff for models on demand, just that it will probably be feasible in a decade or so, so folks will probably complain about that, too. Those guys can maybe go carve their own out of wood or something.....
