Will Snubbing the Pre-Order System Get Us the Products We Want?

Just maybe if they bring the manufacturing back to the US; it would help there lengthy lead times and our trust in their word as to when things are coming out. Plus some added jobs back in the US

 

Maybe, but the real issue is the subcontracting of manufacture, wherever in the world it occurs.

As long as the company marketing a given item has to rely another company to produce it, we'll have a tail wagging the dog situation.
The subcontract manufacturer gets to dictate both the minimum production quantity and the schedule on which it is made.

If the marketer lacks sufficient confidence that they can sell out the required minimum production quantity, then they might resort to preordering. If, after a certain time period has elapsed, the quantity of preorders fails to approach the required minimum production quantity, then the marketer has to decide whether (1) to proceed with manufacturing, while hoping that additional orders will materialize once the product reaches retailers, or (2) extend the preorder window indefinitely, while stringing along those who placed earlier preorders, or (3) give up entirely and cancel the project.

A related question is the viability of a demand pricing structure for various roadnames.
Let's assume that (pre)orders for items in certain roadnames (PRR, UP, ATSF, etc.) would have no trouble meeting or exceeding the required minimum production quantity. However, orders for less popular roadnames (Missouri-Illinois, for example) might not meet the minimum quantity. Would those who still want products made in those less popular roadnames be willing to pay a proportionately higher price for them? The relevant set-up charges (at least for painting and lettering, if not any road-specific details) for those models would be allocated over a relatively smaller run resulting in a relatively higher selling price.

 

So just how are they to determine what to make? How will they determine what will sell? If lets say, only 5% or less of modelers take part in this, how do we know that this system would bear fruit for any manufacturer. How will they know the 5% is a fair predictor of all of us? The problem is getting people to respond to any polls or requests. Look how long it took for Charlie to set up the Missouri-Illinois special run in N-scale. And most of us are here on a daily or weekly basis. How often do we expect people to visit websites, the LHS ( mine is an hour away with an HO bias) , e-tailers (I visit only when looking for something).. I just don't see how that would work unless Bachman, Kato, Atlas, Con Cor, MRC, IM, etc, etc,etc, somehow put as many modelers on an e-mail list as they can get. And send out mass surveys and HOPE people respond. ( insert Kens saturation comment here) And how many would really respond?
It is unfortunate that we are depending so much on pre-orders, that companies cant build their own, and everyone is afraid of risk. I totally understand all of this. But I still say this.. Bachman, as bad as their reputation may have been, has got the right ideas. Kato does too but cares less about U.S. requests for the most part. These guys have their own production lines. Atlas also, but dependent upon outsourcing----uggghh) And have to be making good money doing what the do or they would not be here for us to praise or raze.
I do not see a change coming. Not for a long time if ever. What we need, is people willing to say no to the pre order. If I had a million bucks, I still would refuse it because I know what it is doing to the hobby. SEVERLY limiting our choice and trust in producers.
The only idea I can come up with is this, why did it work in the 70's and 80's? They didn't have internet and somehow survived building en-masse. Sure quality suffered but it was still new. And they made money or they would not have succeeded right? They built it, customers came, looked touched tested and bought. What happened? What changed? Business is no longer based on ethics. Its based on bottom line only. I get this. But at some point, the balance shifted to a side where things are out of whack. All to make an extra penny.
My grandparents come to mind. Spend ten dollars in gas to save a dime.. But at least they had fun at it. Anyway. Have fun with this.
And I cant believe this thread hasn't been beaten to death yet. I know many horses that would have succumbed to the beatings by now.

 

I'll try to be succinct...
Times have changed drastically for the this hobby in general. We demand for better quality and prototypical models... which wasn't the case 40+ years ago. If you wanted better detail... you bought brass or did all the upgrades yourself. Manfacturers gave you whatever they thought would sell... not what you wanted. If your favorite railroad was Chicago Great Western... you bought whatever was shoved down your throat... stripped it... repainted and decaled it... or paid someone else to do it. We still have many model railroaders who this... but I'm sure they and others prefer to spend time running the trains instead. Model Railroad companies know that several roads are already oversold... but the other roads don't have the mass following of UP, Santa Fe, Southern Pacific and the like.
A software system that would help manfacturers, distributors and hobby shops gauge demand would feel helpful... it is not the final solution. We still have the separate issue of our manufacturer/importers being held hostage by the demands or whims of the overseas factories. I call the current situation in China... CommuCapitalism. Bring us your tooling and your business... and we will dictate what you can do... and if you don't like it... leave without you tooling. That issue... I have no solution for.

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Cal, There is no solution. lets say one of the manufacturers does pull their production from China. They loose everything they need to produce and have to start over from scratch. Once they do get production goin g here or where ever; that is when China will start up its own company and out produce, Wal-Mart the price, and break the original company. And assault the market. Its not fair but their long term goal is not friendly like the sheeple believe. Pitty them ...

 

Before we all go gaga over this, has anyone looked into the legality of this scheme? I am no lawyer but it seems to me that there is an element of collusion involved here.

 

Is it better to throw good money after bad? In other words manufacturers have to recognize that going to China did not live up to the anticipated promise of cheaper product. If anything it introduce a bottleneck. So do they continue this scenario sending or creating more tooling for China? Or do they go someplace else where they can conduct business in a friendlier environment? Either way there are costs that have to be absorbed but one way only perpetuates the current problem while the other offers opportunity. I am not sure China would try what you suggest. They can't meet the demand for production facilities/time now so how could they try to assault the market as you suggest. And production facilities is all they have, no marketing or distribution system. With no access to the ultimate consumer they can produce to their heart's desire but sell nothing.

With the experience that manufacturers have had in China I think they would not want to repeat it. Nor do I think they would want to help market any product from China that would threaten their existence. The distribution system for RR hobby products is rather small and has long standing relationships not found in big box chain store systems. In short I don't think you can WalMartize this hobby.

 

Probably more correctly, it didn't turn out to be as cheap as hoped. That doesn't mean it's still not cheaper than trying to do the same thing in the US.

China manufacturers sell like crazy on EBay and to third party distributors in Hong Kong and Singapore. They don't have to sell to the consumers directly.

Agreed.

 

An interesting side-story that seems applicable, here. We have been ordering replacement appliances for my mother's house. All of the established US trade names now use Chinese production facilities. If we order something that is not on the warehouse floor here, it gets made in China and shipped to the US. And, according to the distributor here, broken while in-transit about 50% of the time. We have had this happen with both of the 2 appliances we ordered so far (refrigerator and dish washer). It is considered a "normal" cost of doing business for them.

It is scary to realize that the US has created an economic system that is so burdened with regulations and taxes that it is cheaper to have just about everything made on the other side of the Pacific, shipped across, and throw 50% of it away before selling the rest.

But, prices seem to be skyrocketing for Chinese products, despite their currency devaluation. Apparently that is caused by people there realizing that there is a better life and they want it. Not an unexpected result. Already happened in Japan and South Korea. But, do we have to lift EVERY underdeveloped country's economy at the expense to our own before we can get back to building something for ourselves, again? Or, will we eventually become an under-developed country, ourselves, UNABLE to provide for our own markets?

This is not really a "natural" situation; it is the product of our Federal Government's policies. Trade policies and tax policies and financial policies have changed to create this situaion, and they can be changed again to help fix it. For instance, the government has held bank interest rates ARTIFICIALLY low for a decade by borrowing money abroad (mainly from China) and providing it to US banks at near zero interest. In a really capitalistic system, when the government needs money as it does now, it needs to RAISE interest rates to borrow it DOMESTICALLY, and that benefits the retired people who have a large amount of savings. Instead, our policy is basically forcing retirees to draw-down principal for living expenses because there is only tiny interest income from savings. So, we in the retired community with time to get back into model railroading are not in the financial situation we expected or wanted, and that has to be hurting the hobby, too.

So, my answer to the question in the original post is "No", we will not get what we want by boycotting the pre-order system. That will just be another nail in the coffin of our expendable (from the Federal viewpoint) hobby. To get what we want, we need to bring manufacturing and prosperity back to the US. And, that is a matter of national POLITICAL action, not model railroading. So, let's leave that debate to some other forums on the 'Net.

Steve

 

Looks like I was writing while Maletrain was embedding his thoughts here on TB. Without quoting everything I agree with here is a blanket statement: I AGREE! Until, we get to the bit about leaving this discussion "Debate to some other forums on the net". I know of no better place to bring a discussion like this then to the purveyors of the hobby. The only problem is I don't thing the ears this was intended for are tuned in here. If that's what is being said then, "I AGREE."

Now back to the software discussion:

The sorting process in the computer could also be made by designation of the submit tee. For example: I would like to see Kato produce a 4-8-4, FEF, Northern for Santa Fe and other railroads with both tenders. Once submitted that would automatically go to Kato. I have no idea how to keep other companies from duplicating the same item and swamping the hobby shops with them. No idea! Well one. The hobby shop by now should now what sells and what doesn't. I wouldn't order anything risky....unless I had a specific customer request for said item.

Although, I've heard tell that they do sit down with each other from time to time to discuss such isues. Highly competitive, sometime hostile and downright weird when all of a sudden we get three manufacturers producing an Alco PA. While I'm on the subject Alco PA is the designation for the type of locomotive. PB is not. It's Alco PA, A unit or lead unit and PA, B unit as in cab less and not a booster unit or pusher. Just had to throw that in there.

Oh what the heck. Let's get technical and you'll find railroads IE., Santa Fe using L.A.B.C. for an ABBA designation. L for lead unit as in has a cab, A the first cabless unit, B the second cabless unit and C the last unit in the lash-up (not consist) which has a cab. See the Sacramento and the museum there as they have preserved a live model of the C unit.

Sigh!

 

Rick, I suspect that the US vendors would agree, too. What businessman does not want less regulation and lower taxes? What I want to leave to another forum is only the wrangling over what current political candidate(s) for President and/or Congress would be best for the hobby and/or the whole country. Those debates tend to get nasty pretty fast, and I like the friendly nature of this board too much to start something like that here.

Steve

 

Just a few points......

First, "China" is not one big blob with consistent results. Like anyone or anywhere in the world, you can get great people who are honest and there are always a few scoundrels. I admit there are some cultural differences, but I have had a mix of very good and some bad results working in China.

Second, yes, the US system isn't very conducive to small, low value manufacturing. And, to avoid the politics, its such a long standing trend that I doubt one candidate over another would make a real difference, so no need to make it political. I once did the calculations of the cost of shipping an N scale freight car over here, and its only pennies per piece, vs. the cost of 1/1oth or less in labor. Add in startup factory costs, etc., and for model trains, the economics really do favor going overseas, even if a few do stay here successfully.

Third, it seems some of the software some of you mention are really just technological advancements to, and centralization of, the existing pre-order system, not some revolutionary thing that would replace it. I do suspect it will evolve somewhat over time.

Fourth, I do think China provided lower cost manufacturing, but perhaps Atlas and others didn't pass on all the savings. They did seem to keep loco prices the same for a long time, but I would have never expected a decrease in price when they switched over and used China. Besides, for that matter, did they ever make stuff in the US, or just switch from Roco to Kato to a mix of Chinese mfgs?

Lastly, yes times have changed. As my grandma used to say, it gets tougher every year. I presume the Blue Box days were never great for Athearn, in holding stock in warehouses, just in case I wanted a ten year old product, etc. It took a while for the market to change to where everything could be pre-order. (or most) I tend to believe it had to. The choice wasn't do business the old way or new way....it was go out of business or do it a new way.

Just MHO, of course.

 

Now I have a better understanding. And, I agree and should have picked up on that. Politics...like you implied....don't get me started.

We now return you to our regularly scheduled program.

Rossford Yard, well summarized.

 

Jeff, I don't believe any Atlas locomotives were made in the USA. A sizable number of Atlas freight cars-- what I call the "second generation" - were made in the USA prior to production being moved to China.

While I am tossing in my two cents: Given the relative "flood" of cheap trees, cheap figures, cheap fencing, etc. in 1/150 scale being listed on our favorite auction community, I can't help but wonder what items will be next. We're starting to see a few structures here and there. Yes, you get what you pay for, but it's hard to pass up around ten cents per figure for background scenes vs. $8, $10, $12 or more for a few also-Chinese made figures sold under a name brand.

There was an article in The Atlantic magazine some years ago which described how a Chinese manufacturer would make a certain number of electronic parts for a name brand, and then make more of the same for "private label" distribution. For me this led to the conclusion that I might as well buy that cell phone battery for $7 with free shipping vs. plunking down $35 plus tax for what could be exactly the same thing. Even if the $7 battery lasted only 1/5 as long as the $35+tax battery, I was still ahead.

 

What we are seeing is the lowest of the low value products being copied/made under their own name. Wonder if they could really make the jump to locos without a lot of design input from stateside? Makes sense it would be those, but it may progress, who knows. I doubt it, but again, I can't read the mind of a billion people!

As to your last paragraph, one of the sales pitches against the ultra discount electronics chains is that they accept inferior quality parts. That is, the house brand of Best Buy has a QC rating of 99% good, but Frye's takes those leftover parts for their house brand (or some lower generic brand of computer) which only QC out at 80% or so. Then, maybe the Chinese off brand has the exact same parts, but only QC at 70% or whatever. I would hope they still throw out the total rejects!

No way to know what is true, but I suspect your take is right, especially for fairly standard parts like batteries.

 

The real problem with off-brand batteries is not life-time, but safety. At least for lithium-ion batteries. Those tend to start fires if not properly manufactured. Other devices, if they have 70% and sell for 10% of name-brand, I can see why stateside vendors would sell them for 50% off and replace the ones that don't work at no cost to the customer. But if they start a fire, the lawsuits are going to kill any profits real fast.

Steve

 

It's not just people and trees. It's alot of things. You can buy a bunch of streetlights for little or nothing, comparitively.
I mentioned Wal-Marted because of pricing. They can do to competitors what wal-mart did to mom and pop shops if they choose to do so. They do have the capability. If anyone pays attention to military news, the auto industry and construction industry. They can produce. And quality is marginal to good. They don't care if they steel the technology or patents. That's not something they worry about, because no one tries to stop them, politically. We must remember what the end game plan of Marxism really is. It's not about fairness, it's about control. And they are doing a good job at it.
So back to the preorder snub.. We are stuck. Good or bad. (I still don't like it) Until the time comes that either the hobby picks back up, Or that companies can have their own manufacturing. At which point, hopefully, we won't get stuck with 3,5 or 10 year waiting lists. But I will not hold my breath. I, personally believe that we stepped off a cliff years ago moving everything we can overseas.
Who started this thread? I mean dude, you really are like the cute little girl with Pandoras box, and you just had to open it didn't you?

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Since that was about four cell phones ago, and the new batteries tend to be much better than the old ones (at least so far-- and I guess now I've jinxed it), the $7 vs. $35 battery choice hasn't been an issue for me in at least a few years.

Of course, there's always those certain phones for which the battery can't be replaced without Major Surgery-- but "i" don't want to get into that...

Back to the topic at hand...