I am looking for a few cars to make up a MOW train. I look at that auction site and see a coupled of the cars I want for what I consider highly inflated prices. They list "High auction value" then give a little discount. Some of these cars have been on there for months with no takers. I know there used to be frenzy of buyers that would pay top dollar for the MT cars. I know that the market and the value of the cars has dwindled considerably. When did this happen? Did it coincide with the stock market collapse? Why did this happen? Stock Market? Overproduction? I have never been a collector. I am primarily a runner. I do keep the original boxes, but at this point would have a hard time matching boxes with rolling stock. LOL
It seems to have been going down hill for a long time, much earlier than the recent economic collapse. Not as bad as the Beany Baby market but still a big change.
"a lot longer than that" is a long time in my memory, too. Like pre-online-auction sites. There was a certain dealer that did closed, mail-in auctions and then published the results, and for many years that was the gold standard of collector pricing. Two of my friends made some rather ridiculous profits doing that - picking up cars at train shows and immediately hitting the mailer auction sheet. Post online-auctions, it's a lot more likely that if you're patient one might show up. There's still a premium for certain cars, but nothing like the 'black tulip' years that I've seen. Not that there haven't been some truly excellent bidding wars touched off, there have, but with multiple points of entry to collectors the pricing and availability is a lot less constrained. I'm a runner, not a collector, but I have a collector friend that has seen the market value of his full dressers of micro-trains cars kinda collapse over the nuts years. People get all upset on online auction pricing and that has nothing to do with it unless the item is misrepresented in some way. You can overprice to your hearts content, as long as you don't say that that Atlas Rivarossi 4-6-2 is a brass locomotive recently painted, or some other misrepresentation. If you really want to find out what something is worth, price it for a buck and hang on.
This has been discussed before, and it basically is a result of EBay. EBay has made it clear that there are probably more MT and other collectible items out there than was previously imagined and rational customers are not paying too much for stuff, now knowing that another one is likely to pop up next month. Knowledge is power, basically. BTW, I think the collector markets were exposed in the 1800's with the Dutch Tulip craze.
I have another friend of mine that had a BIG N scale layout in past years and wanted 100 MT 2-bay, 50-ton hoppers for running. He personally contacted MT and had a special run made of offset-end 50-tonners, black B&O cars, significantly under MSRP retail price back in the 70's. They have an oddball car number but otherwise are the same as the normal MT stock. They don't appear on ANY MT production records released I've ever seen. Good news is that they really are collectors items, bad news is that they were most certainly runners, at least dusty and worn wheels, but not weathered. He's sold like five of them so far just to see what they would do, and the collectors went reasonably nuts over them, run or not. In that case, knowing the history, those really are a collectors car. He's made a comment to me that they've outperformed every other investment he every made so far. I'm not sure how many times MT made special runs for individuals. Curious about that.
That makes two of us. and I'm sure there are many more of us around. Maybe I don't know the meaning of "collector". If it means "buy with the hope of it increasing in value" then I have no idea. If it means "buy one of everything I can afford and like" then that is the economy. Hmmm, er, to my best guess it is the economy.
I too suspect it's the economy, but coupled with a declining collector population. Not to get all macabre about it, but I'm wondering if the collectors are simply starting to pass on with few new collectors coming in to take their place.
Here is a good example, I purchased an expensive Tin Plate Litho Airliner over 12 years ago, this is a West German toy of high quality. 10 years ago, it was valued at $675.00 to $800.00. Now, I have tried to sell it, and the highest big I have gotten is $59.00. If that isnt an indicator I dont know what is. Needless to say, I didnt sell it. I also bought a entire store stock of 100's of 1/64 Johnny Lightning Die Cast Cars at a lot price, all packaged, costing $3.99 new. Cannot hardly sell 2 for $3.00. The collectable toy is NOT the place to put your money unless you just like to tinker or play. I suppose it could be the time to buy as prices have never been this low. N scale trains seem to do better, but still down. fatalxsunrider43
The resale value of any car will depend on the market and how rare that car is to find... Sadly a lot of modelers and dealers believe they are sitting on a rare car but,in all truth it may be a common car. The hardest thing is keeping up with the use market and the rarity of a car and that is no easy task. I once found a $50.00 car for $3.00..I bought it and sold it to a collector for the market price and made $47.00 profit..Of course it could go South as well and one could get burnt in the process by not knowing the current market price. Ask any horse trader.
Ok trainman, I hope this is better, I took my post down, didnt mean to make a bother. SIGH !!! fatalxsunrider43
I do a little collecting, mostly for certain railroads or just a piece I think is cool, and IMHO the economy had driven down prices. People have less disposable income or are thinning their collections for cash leaving a lower demand with greater supply condition. One thing I have personally noticed is that prices for MT cars at online auctions sites seem to do better around Christmas. I can't say why other than perhaps people have some money in their pocket but my auctions seem to do better at the end of the year.
I may be out of sync with the ongoing progressive thread. At least hear me out. We are all collectors in the sense that we collect the trains and equipment we want. Regarding a "Collectors Market". N scale has not produced anything worthy of being considered a "Collector's Item". Most of the early stuff, that might qualify due to age, is considered to be... junk at best and belongs in the trash can. There are modelers like our own George, MTNTrainman who takes the older train cars and re-works them to operate on his layout. I admire and respect that. With regard to the alleged collectors market, collectors items they aren't. The "Toy Train Market of Yesterday". Something happened in that Marx, Lionel, American Flyer did see some of their stuff hit the antique vintage toy train market. Without thinking, Lionel came along and reproduced some of their early tin plates and the market for the older and rare items considered to be collectors items, dropped out. Why buy the used stuff when you can buy brand new tin plates that operate better and look brand new. MT and ConCor did put out some "Collectors Sets"...at least it said so on the box. It's not what's on the box that counts, it's the rarity of the item. Just because it says so on the box does not a collector's item make it. It's no guarantee. At the last swap meet I went to, a fellow model rail was selling off his Quote "Collectors Sets" Unquote for less then the MSRP. These aren't true collectors sets, as there are to many of them, still out there. A serious look at the so called "Colletor's items". There is no way that any items produced in N Scale to date, will ever qualify as a collectors item. There is an organization of toy train enthusiast who have organized or banded together to promote the idea of turning specific items into Quote "Collectors Items" Unguote. Cash cows...comes to mind. They've created a false economy, that has no back bone. This idea of a collectors market in N scale products... is pure balderdash.
Rick,I am a horse trader and I agree with your overall acessment except "This idea of a collectors market in N scale products... is pure balderdash." Thinking like that makes my day for the true collectors value of some rare cars that is a one run or a run done for a club,historical society etc.. Those "collector sets" will depend on a lot of things to include John Deere green HO trains. Of course those "collectible state cars" are niceties but,not worth all that much.Add any sport,NASCAR and the price will go up not to the modelers as much as the sports and NASCAR fans..I know a guy that bought a battleship car simply because his dad served aboard that ship.Go figure. I can't explain this crazy market and I won't try because I don't fully understand it myself. As far as Lionel..The hardcore Lionel collector won't even look at the reproduction models because the repros(as they are called) simply can't replace the original. Today's limited production isn't helping either..I seen long out of production locomotives sell that was 20-30% above MSRP.. During the Berea Train show I seen a Atlas/Kato RS3 for $75.00..Surprisingly somebody bought it.Probably because the drive was Kato's..I don't know.I know this that was $65.00 more then I would pay for for it.
Here is My $0.02 The Collector auctions slipped over the precipice into the abyss between 2001 and 2003. Ebay was the demise of the paper "Collector Auction" but for a different reason than you might guess. With a paper auction, the "Auction Master" would never release the names of people that won an auction item and they were the ones who really knew the amount the item sold for. Now, if the item was actually bid on and for the amount stated was never really known by the masses because no one made the system visible. How about the $7000.00 one-of-kind car that no one but the Auction Master ever saw. It still went up for auction and was reported as sold. To my knowledge, no one has ever claimed to be the purchaser of that car one-of-kind and a request of who the winner was for validation was denied. The old system reeked of suspicion, even if it was legitimate. Ebay changed all of this. Users could watch 1) how many bids were actually made, 2) a more progressive bidding system instead of one amount, 3) the actual final price and 4) until a short time ago, the winning bidder. The auction process became transparent and the sacred data known only to the Auction Master was now there for all to see. Another force in the implosion was the way the "De Facto Guide" that collectors carried in their back pockets. The Guide listed only the all time "high" price that was paid for the item up for bid. It did not matter how long ago that all time price was. Collectors hoping to retire on their hoard then over-valued their collection. Adjustments for market value was not even acknowledged. This is what the guide said it was valued at and that is what I am going to get! So, everyone tried to sell their items for the all time high and collectors as a mass would never pay that high price. Example, $1800.00 for the Meat Packers six car set... that’s $300 per car. The Illinois state car at $450. Geeze Louise. Before some of you start shouting, I do know that not all guides did that. IIRC, the Miller guide did track actual values and should be commended. The online auctions in tandem with better guides allowed people to become more knowledgeable buyers. This in turn drove the prices down. When no one paid the high prices, the minimum bids began to be lowered across the board. Once you went down that road, no one would go back to the old way. Lastly, the fees that paper "Collector Auctions" was charging (20%-25%) were 5-6 times the amount Ebay charged. Any person who had access to a computer could sell their own items without the ridiculous fees. Too bad these days that Fee-Bay has caught up with the old guard. But that is a different rant ....
Larry, From your response, I could sware I know you, guessing I might have worked with you. And this isn't the first time I've thought that. Anyway, I did appreciate your thoughts on the subject. I was generalizing with regard to N scale and you got specific. I would have to agree with your reference to cars done for historical purposes or for club layouts. I've paid a price or two, for some specific...I want and can't do without N scale train cars. I don't consider them to be "Collector's Items" but important to my collection. Thanks for the input and response.
Well said, Sir Knight. The only good part of this (for me) was the SHOCK of what the supposed 'market value' of some of the cars that I kitbashed, weathered, or otherwise 'ruined'....never was there to begin with and I can just go back and enjoy my trains.
I'd argue that the collector market in general, not just in model trains has generally fallen on hard times. 10 years ago there was a rash of "collecting" mainly among toys, but it spilled over to anything. Keep it in it's box and vacuum seal it. That has completely fallen apart.
