Yes, you beat me to that comment, but I'll pile on anyway. Back in the "good old days" it used to be that malls would pay a nominal amount for a layout exhibit because it brought in shoppers. Then it became "we'll let you display here for free" which then morphed to "what will you pay us"? Here in my corner of Mallville, the same company owned the malls throughout this process, so this isn't just limited to the consolidation of ownership. There can still be opportunities to get the word out... we just need to be creative. We don't need a lot for this but we do need some sort of monetary investment. Here's a wacky thought: There is a twice-yearly sci-fi/celebrity/etc. show called "Chiller Theatre" that is down in New Jersey. One of the guests scheduled to appear is Michael Gross, the celebrity spokesperson for the World's Greatest Hobby promotion. He's a genuine rail buff. I wonder if that could be tied into his appearance? And could Rod Stewart, possibly the most famous model railroader today, be tempted to do a bit of promotion for us? I'm not ready to give up on the younger set. I think enough of a seed can be planted such that while it may go dormant during the "cars, girls (boys) and gadgets" phase it will sprout later.
Build to order, pre-order, is a bean-counter idea that if something stays in the shelf longer than 1 day (hypothetically), somehow the company/store/distributor will be losing money. This could not be further from the truth. What they are losing are all the deferred and future sales. Deferred sales come in the form of bad timing or unavailability. For example, locomotive A was released in June, but it was a totally new release so no one knew how well it would run etc. So the tendency is to wait and see how it does before spending the hard earned money. Or funds were short or whatever reason, one is not able to make the purchase. And that is not to mention many of the releases where the pre-orders were shorted too. How many posts have there been decrying the pre-order model? This is how the manufacturers are alienating the consumer base. The fact is, companies like Atlas, Kato and Bachmann have all been around enough that they could use a predictive model based on previous sales and actually, if they were smart, even look at the sales on sites like eBay for more information. The point is that there is more than enough information, that with proper analysis of the data, a better production/sales model could be implemented that served both the interests of the manufacturers and their customers. It is this type of business intelligence that makes a company more agile to meet the needs of the marketplace. I will cheat and use ATSF as an example or could have used UP or SP or whatever road. Look at the all of the units that Kato, Atlas, FVM, IM and others have sold. Look at the new products in the pipeline like BLMA Beer Cars. As a manufacturer, I would look at my production numbers and say I usually sell some amount of this item. But this could be an artificial demand number if the secondary sales market is not considered. Where does one go if the favorite shop does not have any inventory, they go to places like eBay and other online sites to find the item. I call this artificial because if the unit is put up for auction and has a great deal of activity, the losing bidders are the unfulfilled market segment. So as a manufacturer, if I see these trends in the secondary market, it may adjust my production numbers for the next release so that more product will be there for the underserved or unfulfilled market customers. Predatory auction site trends can have a negative effect of overall sales, and as a manufacturer, it is better for me to channel more product into the friendly dispensing channel and allow outfits like Mike Fifer's to reorder stock if they sell out quickly, like the Walthers GP38-2. And there is no way to increase the "good will" of the consumer base than to be able to buy what they want when they can. And my own example, I really wanted a B&O blue wagon top caboose from Fox Valley. But I was pre-occupied when they were announced and missed the reservation window and also by the time I realized they were out there, they were all gone from my normal providers. This is all on me and I am not to worried about it because I have never let my model railroading take precedence over other areas of my life. But in this case, I too am an underserved consumer, a lost sale. When the manufacturers realize the amount of lost sales due to the production model, maybe they will change it. They may be missing out on a lot of potential sales, possibly enough to drive their production into the next volume discount bracket.
A few comments concerning "latest technology" and the younger generation. First, there is an experiment going on there now by Bachmann. They are introducing Bluetooth control using an app on cell phones and bluetooth-enabled "decoders" or receivers/controllers in the engines. Not a bad idea to TRY. BUT... There are downsides to tying train operation to cell phones. First, do we really want to get a call while we are running multiple trains on the same track? Do we want that OTHER operator in our club running HIS train on the same tracks as OUR trains when HE gets his call? Sounds like trying to run too many high priority processes through one time-sharing interface. Distractions will lead to accidents. Cell phones are already notorious for that. Second, smartphone apps are notoriously "glitchy" because the operting systems for the many different phones are highly varied and continuously changing. There may well be CONTINUOUS frustration with control apps that work today and not tomorrow when your service provider installs the next OS update while you are asleep. (Dedicated bluetooth train control devices might avoid this, so long as there is a way to prevent channel interferences in the future.) And, what about the existing base of DCC engines? Will these be in need of "upgrading" in the same way that the current trove of DC engines needs to be upgraded, in order to be able to run them on future layouts? It has taken DECADES to reach the point where DCC is starting to become the standard operating system. Many individual modellers are still not ready to make that change, even now. If we keep going to "latest technology" for the STRUCTURE of train operating systems, technology changes so fast that pretty much everything everybody ownes at any time will already be out-of-date. That could hurt the hobby far more than help it. If a change is to be made in the system for operating trains, in needs to show a MAJOR improvement in control and be cost-effective, or it will be worse than the status quo. Steve
You keep making excellent points. I am acquainted with a prototype railroad bean counter. This person does not think highly of how bean counting is applied to the industry these days. In fact, ever since real operational railroaders were shoved aside by bean counters, the industry has had some far from beneficial moments. As exemplified by your comments, the same is quite true of our portion of the hobby industry. They are so obsessed over not losing money, they are quite likely not bringing in what is actually possible. It most certainly has a negative effect upon we, the end consumers.
Bluetooth (or DBTC) is NOT limited to phones! I have a dedicated 10” tablet (~$100) that I will be using (It will also be capable of displaying switch control panels). Some JMRI users are buying (~$40) phones and setting them up for dedicated use. The incremental cost of making a hands-on control unit would be ($10-$30) depending on sales volume. Bluetooth automatically avoids interference. If Bluetooth (&Wi-Fi) is misused (or very heavily used in a small area), there can be interference problems. DBTC trains run on DCC layouts without any modifications. DCC trains would only need to be modified only if they were run on a layout that was not DCC (or old-analog-DC). For DCC trains to be modified to DBTC they would have their DCC-decodes replaced with a DBTC-unit. The incremental cost of a DBTC-unit over a DCC decoder is about $10. Most DBTC units will have added features that are not possible in DCC-decoders and have an incremental cost of ($20-$30). Bob
The reality of the wagontop caboose availability is that it was announced in November 2013, so you had over a year to pre-order it with some of the (unmentionable) online dealers, even after Fox Valley's reservation window had closed. Every once in a while one of the new monthly releases from Micro-Trains sells out on or before arrival at the retailers. Perhaps it's because there is exceptional demand for that item. Cynics speculate that it's done deliberately by the manufacturer in an attempt to induce dealers to increase the quantities of their standing orders. I wouldn't hold out much hope for manufacturers trying to estimate lost sales and boost future production runs accordingly. They've proved willing to risk disappointing some marginal fraction of the customer base while moving right along to the next item on their production schedule.
That may be, but as I said it was all on me. It is not practical to try and keep track of everything that is being released. In November 2013 I was preparing to defend another doctoral thesis defense and my mind was not so much on keeping track of future releases. In my case, B&O is just a road I dabble with for sentimental family reasons. It is not one I seriously model. So it is just nice to pick up something different now and then. And I just used me as an example of a lost potential sale, I did get two of the red cabooses, but I would have bought all the blue ones to boot. This happens to everyone in some way or another. And the only recourse would be to peruse the auction sites.
Year after year, people keep trying to vilify manufacturers, but... It is what it is. They're not changing. And if you were in their position, you wouldn't change either. Who in their right mind would take 10 years to sell a certain amount of products, when they could sell the same amount in one year? I see models that came out years ago still sitting at a store near me. There you go, there's your availability... and it's collecting dust, wasting their money. Most people buy stuff when it first comes out, then that decreases drastically. Why keep offering something that 95% of people aren't going to buy? There has always been cheap alternatives, and nobody ever wants them. So waiting for stuff to be available for years, at 1980 prices, that is top notch quality, is never going to happen. It isn't happening in any other niche hobby either. The only thing that bring prices down in any market, is volume. And there's never going to be a huge volume in anything like this.
That is how I started. I liked watching the real thing and then found models that matched the prototype and wanted to have them. It all stems from there. I have involved my sons in various railfanning activities and even got involved in ATCS Monitor so we could easily find the trains to watch! Now I run an ATCS server and my sons check the dispatcher display and tell ME when we need to head to the tracks because there are three trains coming. Pretty cool for 8 and 10 year old boys to encourage me to get out railfanning! Here area few photos of them railfanning in the last 8 months including riding on the back of a private car from Oakland, CA to Portland, OR!
I'd just like to point out that you should never underestimate the importance of the tactile experience of the interface. Touchscreens are fine as a low budget approach, but people ultimately want to throw switches and want to control the throttle with their hands instead of their fingertips.
I don’t “underestimate the importance of the tactile experience of the interface”. Just don’t have the time or money to put into a hands-on control. The people that really need (or want) a hands-on unit should be trying to come up with a common design that most users would accept. That would increase the chances of some manufacturer producing one. Bob
“underestimate the importance of the tactile experience of the interface”. My sons and I use EngineDriver and we use the volume up/down rocker buttons on the side of the phone. Feels very natural for my thumb and works just fine for us. I like that others are pushing to improve the hobby's control interface.
I am perfectly happy with my Digitrax DT402D throttle which supplies me with enough control and tactility (is that a word??). I also am happy with running my locals and switching with my UT4D's with their big knob and minimal other stuff. My sons are also happy with their Digitrax throttles as well as most of my model railroad buddies, who elected to go with Digitrax also (except for the one Rail Lynx holdout!). When I bought my Digitrax Super Chief Radio starter set five years ago, along with two extra utility throttles, a power supply, half a dozen UP5 LocoNet panels, several decoders and a Soundtraxx PTB-100 Programming Track Booster, I'd spent about the same money as what I spent when I bought my new Samsung Galaxy S5 smartphone last month...and all my Digitrax stuff doesn't come with an $80 monthly payment ($960 per year??) I've operated using a DBTC setup at a show several years ago, which was controlling an NCE setup on a modular N-scale club layout and it was fun...I admit it, but not as fun or nearly as "railroady" as using my dark-ages technology Digitrax throttles which do everything I want or need with buttons and dials (remember them?). Although I don't have a clue as to what a manufacturer CEO could do to promote "the hobby" alongside his own products other than offer a good product at a reasonable price, as for me, I'll continue to participate in the three shows a year me, my son and our friends attend with our N-scale modular layout, and attend other functions with the "HOers" (as we like to call them) at the local Hostler's Train Club meetings and get-togethers. Here in Utah/Idaho/Wyoming...the hobby is definitely NOT dying, with the shows so crowded it's difficult to walk around, many portable layouts with out-of-State participation and lots of vendors offering good deals on their products. Did I mention the kids running the trains or the toddlers with their paper engineer's hats and wooden whistles perched on their young fathers' shoulders, or on grampa's shoulders? Mothers with a baby or two in strollers, old people with canes and wheelchairs, as well as everything else in-between...all looking at trains with big smiles on their faces. If this is an alternate universe, I'm glad I found the wormhole that led me here where I can attend a crowded train show, take a mountain bike ride on a steep mountain trail, and go shoot a submachinegun of my choice at the local range all before the sun sets that day. Cheerio! Bob Gilmore
One versus ten? This has me baffled. When you deliberately stunt the size of your production run, to turn it over in one year, you have no idea what might have sold in ten. There is a reason stuff sits unsold. Usually it is lesser quality, high retail price, or obscure road name holding it back.
Just to clarify, what I'm getting at is that those pushing for a high tech solution to "promoting the hobby" are missing one key shortcoming of wireless locomotive control through touch screen devices: it has no advantage by itself over virtual layout and train simulator programs on those same devices when it comes to attracting new people to the hobby. I'm well aware of the advantages that the system has for someone in the hobby; particularly those who have yet to make the jump to DCC since it would allow for an almost painless transition away from DC. However, you have to explain to those entering the hobby why these things are a big deal when they are looking at the cost of setting up their first layout and being tempted to keep their layout on that device. That's why I'm saying that from a technology point of view, you need to go beyond a touchscreen interface if you want to get the public's attention and embrace the tactile aspect of train control. While Ryan Wilkerson provided an example, I was thinking along the lines of an attachable throttle similar to the attachable arcade sticks that are available for smart devices.
Precisely! The biggest key to success is identifying your customers and keeping and maintaining their business. How much demand would there be in Northern California for Wisconsin Central? But one is hard pressed to keep UP, SP, WP and ATSF on the shelves around here.
Depends if you wanted to model those WC units running through Auburn in Northern California on the SP: http://www.railpictures.net/viewphoto.php?id=58244&nseq=0
Exactly, they don't know. And they can't take that risk. I've produced products that I never thought would sell at all, and it ended up being my top selling item. I've produced products that I thought would be a huge hit, that barely sold at all. I've had people beg for products, only to spend months developing it... then have nobody buy it when it comes out. All the "I'd love to have _____" people, conveniently disappeared. Luckily, I wasn't dumb enough to make thousands of them. What if I had? That mistake could have put me out of business, and thousands in debt. It's just too big a risk. Better to quit while you're ahead, than push it for those few stragglers. You can always make more at a later date, if it's that big of a hit. I see stuff at the store that is far from bad value or rejects. Years later, it's still sitting there. So imagine if they had made enough for ten years. In the end, I would bet that the overwhelming majority of people get what they want, and keep coming back. Honestly, I'm amazed that they make as many unique items as they do, considering how small the market is. Imagine trying to figure out what the max number of Bluford transfer cabooses would be, to last ten years, or even five years. That's insane. You would never guess that right, and more than likely have thousands of dollars sitting on the shelves forever. That's money you could put into other products. I just don't think many of these companies have that kind of cash to freeze up.
After working in a hobby shop, back through college, and eventually managing the train department, there's so many fingers on this hand to discuss. 1) Store order is paramount back in the days where Athearn Blue Boxes, Roundhouse kits, etc, were the norm. You had to order what you knew would sell, maybe grab a couple of roadnames that didn't typically sell, just so you had some variety....BUT you still had to choose wisely, otherwise they'd sit on the shelves. Sometimes for years. So you're at the mercy of the hobby shop guys knowing what to order....at least back then. 2) If you order wrong, and have stock on the shelves that no one's interested in, say you order one of every roadname for a new loco release, those locos that are not popular in your area.....are going to sit. So YES you've lost future and deferred sales, rather than order more quantities of roadnames you will sell. The owner of the shop ordered three sets of Athearn Special Edition Lehigh Valley F7s. We were in Chicago. What do you think the chances of selling any of those were? ZIP. They sat on the shelves until the store closed, and he them as part of his liquidation. 3) Any thing that sits on the shelf more than a day is losing money. That's inventory economics 101. You've lost shelf space for new products, you're carrying overhead in stock that won't move.
