All, lets steer clear of political statements. This has been a really good discussion, with a great back and forth of ideas, gripes, explanations, etc. But all it took was the mention of "politics" (in a fair way, which was "and let's not get into that") to seemingly open the door on them. Let us all close that door, now.
But too much of a good thing is not good. If the tooling sent to China is captive then why send more? This is an especially important question since the Chinese have shown that they cannot provide quality service. Their top down economics reminiscent of their communist ideology just does not work in a market based economy. What we have today is anything but a free market. So why perpetuate it? Let China have what it already has but make it a point to have new product made elsewhere. In the last 60 years we have seen model railroad production moved from Europe to Japan to South Korea and now to China. Maybe it is time to move on. Lots of South and Central American countries as well as Asian and African where low standards of living can be exploited and in the process increase the standard of living there just as it did in Japan, South Korea and China. And who knows, maybe people won't beat their swords into plowshares but maybe code 55 track.
I would also like an answer to this question. It has now been known for a long time that engineering, data, tooling, etc, are too often considered to become theirs once it is sent there. Essentially, bluntly, they openly STEAL it. (Regardless of any international trade agreements, treaties or laws.) Which is a major cultural difference I alluded to a page or so back... What possesses any business to continue flushing their investments down the literal toilet? The only answer can be the (sick!) philosophy of short term gain.
I agree with you that it is time to move on with where we get our Hobbies products made, and one of those other countries you mention could work out just great, BUT I didn't see the US mentioned in that paragraph? SHouldn't we entertain the thought of taking back our own manufacturing? Then we could control it much better being closer to our own shores and get products faster; maybe not cheaper. But then again isn't one of the reasons and ideals for this era of our hobby to get better more detailed models anyway. Cheaper isn't really the issue. Quality, and Timely is what I've been reading in this Thread more than any other factor.
The probelm with smaller batteries seems to have been addressed to SOME degree, maybe by smarter manufacturing on the part of the Chinese or maybe by improved product acceptance standards by US distributors, but there are still lithium-ion battery fires, particularly in larger battery sizes. Remember the new Boeing "Dreamliner" battery fires. The main point is that they CAN be dangerous if the manufacturing is not done with proper care and metalurgy. So, how trusting are you that some $20 savings on a battery won't cost you a house? There were similar problems with CFL bulbs catching fire, and many still burn out way before their advertised life span, mainly due to cheap components. The real problem is that the US labels are no longer tied to particular factories or manufacturing companies, it is just the lowest bidder of the moment, with a brand name (or many brand names) added later. So, how do you rely on REPUTATION when picking a product, any more? What was good yesterday may have no relationship to what is being sold today. Most marketing people seem to have shifted standard operating procedures from " a knowledgeable customer is our best customer" to "a sucker is born every minute." That is why I consider vendors and LHS owners who value their reputations and customers to be worth supporting, even when there is a price difference against them.
I just learned something from a post make by a marketing consultant on the Yahoo N scale forum. Without naming the person the post stated thusly, "Today's production runs are upwards of only ten percent of what they were 15 years ago." REALLY??? What does that mean in economic terms? It means the price per item goes up. This same consultant in that same posting also said, "Right now, even with the worse than the numbers show economy that has depressed Hobby spending, the Market is probably as big as it ever was and the large number of new products are supported only by much smaller per item production numbers but over more manufacturers the total a are pretty good." But it matters not what the total or macro economic effect is. It is the micro economic effect. If macro effect is that the total of new product stays the same despite more manufacturers that means, on the micro economic scale, that each manufacturer has to produce less and thus charge more. So more manufacturers with lower production runs means higher per item prices. So the point is to forget inflation as the reason for todays prices. Here is my response to this consultant, "...the retail price of an Atlas 90 ton hopper in 1980 was less than $4.00. I think it was more like $2.95 as I recall that Micro Trains cars were around $4-$5.00 which I considered at the time to be too expensive. From 1980 to 2015 the cumulative inflation has been 188.8% (from inflation calculator) which means the current price should be about $8.66 for a $3.00 car or $11.55 if a $4.00 car. That is along way off from the current retail price of $17.95. In another post you stated that current production orders are only about 10% of what they were 15 years ago and that I believe is the cause for the prices we have today, not inflation. Here is another example. In 1998 I paid $28.00 for a bulk pack of MT trucks/couplers. That was a discounted price. I don't know what the retail price was. Today that same bulk pack from that same discount shop is $40.95. Inflation Calculator tells me that the cumulative inflation from 1998 till 2015 is 46% and the price today should be $42.33. That is much, much closer. The difference is that the MT trucks are manufactured here while Atlas outsourced their 90 ton hopper to China with all the pitfalls that entails. So it is not inflation, Its the outsourcing to China that is the culprit." So how does this relate to the preorder system? Production runs are smaller but fixed costs do not scale down. They remain the same. Those costs have to be spread over a reduced number of items. That means each item has a large cost loading. Items with a large cost loading, if unsold, have a corresponding large effect on profitability. Therefore it is imperative to know, as accurately as possible, just how many of that item will sell because if not enough sell then the manufacturer losses money. Best way to determine how many will sell is to survey the market before hand to find out how many would buy the product. And that is what the pre-order system seeks to do.
I believe most folks do understand "Best way to determine how many will sell is to survey the market before hand to find out how many would buy the product. And that is what the pre-order system seeks to do." It's the "Those costs have to be spread over a reduced number of items. That means each item has a large cost loading", which gets us to this point. A decision someone else made. And as the size of runs continue to shrink, with prices per item ever rising, retail prices creep, up, up up. Some are priced out, (of the scale or even the hobby), others must reconsider where they'll put their precious dollars. But it's the continual need to participate in a system we did not create, something like "shoot first, ask questions later", which conflicts with many budgets and is just beyond simply irritating, being these days on a nearing continual basis. As can be seen here, there are some folks already fed up with it. That's good for business, the industry and hobby- NOT.
In the short run I would agree. But the way the system is currently structured there is no long run and that is certainly not good for business either. What do I mean? Simply this, basic economics tells us that if we reduce production (supply) but not costs we have to increase prices to ensure a profit. But increasing prices means demand will be reduced. Reduced demand causes problems on the supply side. That seesaw battle goes on until an equilibrium is found where reduced supply equals reduced demand at a certain price. But that is not growth. That is the exact opposite and that is not what manufacturers want or should want. So what is the answer? I think the answer is to accept that the new business model, based on top down theory (production driven), does not work to anyone's advantage and go to a business model (market driven) that does work. So far there is no evidence that is occurring except possibly this discussion we are having now.
Well, you really didn't say anything that much different from what I was trying to state. We're really making the same observations.
I don't believe the "intent" was to be political. But that is the big problem with the pre order issues and manufacturing. It is politics that drove everyone away from the U.S. to manufacture. It's politics that keeps it away. And It's the natural progression of everyone's view in this thread if you pay attention. What is really really sad? Is that politics is in every part of our life now. Even this hobby. I don't like it. No. I hate it. I just want to run trains. Buy trains. Build layouts. Share my hobby. But it's not as easy as that when I have to save up to buy my one or maybe two engines a year or whatever because of the economy. And how things have progressed in U.S. economics. I will say this. This was a Pandoras box that was opened. I imagine many have not shared their views for fear of, being labeled, shutting this thread down, or being blocked. Because someone's feelings are a bit hurt, or its opposite of their belief. Which is opposite of what this thread is about. We are looking for truths, and worried where it's headed. We know some manufacturers read this. Perhaps if they see how their actions affect us as hobbiests, perhaps they may find a better way.... They need to know the views of the people that buy their products. They need to reach out to us. Not the other way around. Perhaps that was the intent Glennac had in mind? Or maybe he is worried, like others. That pre orders are going to kill n-scale. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Just a bit of "food for thought" here. I have been sitting here thinking about recent years of model railroading. Aside from tinplate years, I have modeled in N for 43 years now. Along the way have worked in HO, HOn30, and On30. I still work in HOn30 and am starting to drift further that way. Why? Especially with the advent of Shapeways, it has become much easier to get what is desired, to do what I wish to accomplish. And in some aspects, it is becoming easier than the same in N scale. I have hinted at this in past posts. I am certain that I am not alone.
Ok Ken. I get what your saying. And I agree with you. 3D printing is going to revolutionize some aspects of our hobby, but will it be used over molds for mass production? I don't really know if it can, or if it could. Not yet anyway. So what exactly is it we want to preorder? Everything? It's looking to go that way, except maybe for some things that sell because we need track, buildings, trees, foliage, people, and those type of details. And the Chinese are starting to sell this now, really cheap. I see it coming for almost every loco, caboose, passenger cars or sets, and freight cars. Not yet, but I sense that's where it all might go. That's when it dies. People will just buy stuff off of the auction site because it's ready, cheaper, and available. Detail won't and is not as important to the AVERAGE modeler. The average modeler doesn't demand high detail. Those that want High detail will lose out and have to go back to old school ways of detailing. Or perhaps have to use 3D for everything they want detailed. We won't see mechanism only sales. The average modeler is the largest consumer so that status won't change. We could see "add on" getting more prevalent like it's growing into now. So. For those who add on or change those details often, (Because you love to do it anyway, admit it) why make such high demands on manufacturers? And if MFG is minimizing production, to reduce stuff sitting on shelves. And jacking prices up to match cost, what is the breaking point? My LHS still has a kato FEF (no dcc or sound ) sitting on its shelf for $535. Come on... is this really the direction we want to go?? So Ken. 3D is going to be awesome. I agree with you on your thought. But who knows when or if any of it will ever be applied to mass production. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
After reading and participating in on this thread; it will be interesting to see what does evolve in our Hobby. Of which I'm sure time will tell all; and we will find some way to live within it. And God willing I will be tuned in and active in it also.
Well, perhaps not of specific chassis a person might be seeking. But Kato has a good line of these items available.
While I think there is some basic truth to your argument here, I think there is a breakdown in the logic with your response to the individual in marketing. That $17.95 freight car of today is significantly more detailed and therefore complicated to manufacture than the freight cars of the 1980's. There are more complicated moulds required, more rejects in production, and more hand labor to add the little detail parts. That means a direct price comparison isn't possible for most manufacturers like Atlas, Micro Trains, etc.. Bachmann still makes some freight cars which border on 1980's detail and quality and I regularly find these bulk cars at hobby shops for $8-$10 which is right in the range you suggest would be correct. I think it likely that most manufacturers would be able to produce early 1980's quality cars for much closer to the "adjusted for inflation" price but I doubt they would find much in the way of buying consumers.
Since I do operations, don't need a lot of fine detail that breaks off. I do not stare at every piece of equipment when I go into the train room. I need the amount of cars for running that I do, so looking close, to good enough, is just fine with me. Atlas Train Man quality works well if I am buying new or others like them. Used cars are mostly what I have bought for the last 5 years, and being what I need is more important then ultra fine detail.
How about the flood of FT's, F3's and F7's hitting the market all at the same time? Remember how exciting that was. Spun my head around a time or two. Just reflecting.
I feel the same way. I buy what I need regardless of the level of detail but we seem to be the exception. Clearly the market is pushing manufacturers towards greater levels of detail. I've read threads where people actually complained about the level of detail on Trainman and Bachmann products; I thought it was obvious that detail wasn't the driving force behind those product lines. Can't please everyone I suppose. Back on topic, I suspect a good way for people who dislike the pre-order system to get around it is to buy in-stock RTR that is fairly close to what you want then detail and decal to whatever standard you might prefer. That takes your modeling needs out of the hands of the hit or miss pre-order system and it's the retro way to model.
Actually, Inkaneer's example was correct. He specifically referred to the Atlas 90 ton hopper. They're the same car I've been buying for years, but now they retail at $17.95. No new tooling, no extra detail. They come with Accumates and new paint schemes, but otherwise the same car as best as I can tell.
