The latest headline at Rio Grande Hobbies reads, "Atlas GP-38 Early Version Locos Now In-Stock." When one clicks the link to the page you'll see that most of them are sold out. What? This is incredulous! As soon as anything is available it's not anymore! This limited run mentality is killing N scale! Some of us don't have the money to pre-order six at once; it's impossible to buy them over time anymore. Anyone noticed too that maybe a year after these engines come out they're being liquidated at rock bottom prices? It's a conspiracy, I tell you! The dealers make sure to get rid of all their inventory to drive up demand for future runs. Try finding anymore with Kato Genesis units and Superliners in stock anymore, you'll be in for a good search. I sure hope Athearn takes a more managable approach to the business and releases more than five of each model.... *Steps down off his soapbox.*
I agree with your thoughts Brian. It drives me "nuts" when I walk into the LHS and all that's on the shelves are the big MAC's or some obscure road name. Unfortunetly, due to the small size of the industry (about 25,000 N-scalers worldwide) and the tremendous cost of tooling (something like $100,000. Charlie V. correct me if I'm wrong) the mfg's can't really afford to have product on the shelves for very long. They need to recoup their investment. I certainly don't know what the answer is but I hope Athearn will be able to help out in this aspect.
Hi Brian, Try this link: http://www.4nscale.com/products.asp?m=1&t=107 The decoder equiped units are the ones that are primarily sold out. [ 17. September 2002, 16:23: Message edited by: espeeman ]
Relax Brian! Take a deep breath.... OK, Now. That's better! What kind of GP-38 were you looking for? I believe we have a few left at the hobby shop. I'm positive we have an un-dec, non dynamic brake one left and possibly a CSX unit or two left. The price ain't so great, something like $70 but hey, if you are desperate. Also try; www.ahobbycircle.com They sometimes have stuff that is tough to find.
It's not that they don't have what I want, they do. My complaint is that stuff isn't available unless you preorder everything. Either manufacturers are totally missing the demand for their products (highly unlikely with every recent release), or they're purposely creating a shortage so, they can charge more, fuel the collector craze, and create demand for future limited runs. Is it illegal? No. Is this limited only to the model railroad industry? No. Is it frustrating? YES! P.S. - HzG, check for un-numbered DT&I units, that's what I'm looking for...
Yeah Brian, it frustrates me too! I wish the collectors would migrate to Z scale. I just want to run trains, like you.
Only 25,000 of us world wide? Somehow that doesn't sound right. Seems far too small a number for all the interest by manufacturers in recent months. I thought that from surveys in magazines, there were about 1.5 million model RRers, total of all scales, world wide. And that N was anywhere from 15-20% of that group. Which would work out to be in the wide range of 225,000-300,000 N scalers scattered around the planet. Oh well. I also grumble often about these limited runs. They're great for the manufacturer recovering costs quickly. But when my budget isn't ready, especially with all the goodies coming out the last year, I must miss out. Then search in vain later. (That severely dampens the enjoyment!) I have some difficulty in seeing how this helps grow the customer base, the scale in general, and manufacturers profits. Seems as though it would limit them all indefinitely. BoxcabE50
BoxcabE50, you may be right. The 20,000 figure I was quoting was from memory and I may have misplaced a decimal point. I had sent an email to Con-Cor some time ago inquiring into the possibility of them doing AC Cab Forwards. I received a nice email back which had the industry figures and why they felt the AC wouldn't recover their cost of tooling. But, that was some time ago and I may have misquoted the numbers.
Now you really got me on the soapbox! 1) The complaints about availability are coming from internet users. How many shops did you contact on the web to find the engines??? The engines that just arrived last Friday are COMPLETELY sold out??? No way. Are the ones that are left being sold at retail price??? That is a different question. 2) Most of the complaints about lack of availability come from people attempting to do business with one particular shop (BLW, TexNrails, N Scale Supply, etc..) and you have to understand that the deep discounters, while they may get more than their "fair" share of product, will never get as much as they want to give away (check with the place you work...is your profit based on maybe a 5% margin before expenses with the probability of an average turnover of only 1/2, 1 or 2 a year? That is the retail hobby industry. The deep discounters almost to a man are part time "hobby" businesses that are not supporting the owner or any employees.... The fastest way to make a big fortune in the model railroad industry is to start with one twice as big!. You wonder why LifeLike has cut back on locomotive announcements? I would guess because their product was regularly sold at such deep discounts and closeout prices that people stopped buying them at regular hobby shops.... and LifeLike saw a droppoff in sales. The Deep Discounters, while a fact of life, cannot serve as the only conduit for product in our market. Because a few shops are out of an item it does not mean (from a manufacturer's perspective) that the product is sold out at the retail level. By the way, the distributors determine who gets how much of a new release... the manufacturers may allocate to the distributors based on past business with the manufacturer, but have NO say in who gets what!! 3. The idea that quantities are being held back by manufacturers to drive up their profit is wrong. The manufacturer makes more on larger runs... but loses money if merchandise is unsold in their warehouse. Just ask Kato. 4. Product that is sold at deep discount after being carried for a while wounds the industry. While "bargins" may be great, in the long run you want profitable manufacturers, wholesalers, and retail shops that have the money (that dirty "P" word, Profits) to invest in all the new things you want as a customer. A bankrupt company can't invest in new tooling. 5. I am happy that there are people out there whose reading of the market is better than the people at Atlas, Bachmann, Intermountain, MicroTrains, Model Power, Walthers, Kato, Red Caboose, DeLuxe, Model Die Casting, etc... It would be really helpfull if you guys would arrange to guarantee sell through of the model, road name, paint job, and road numbers of future products for these companies. It is really messy relying on wholesale distributors, retail hobby shops, and modelers to order product after informing them of it through the expensive mediums of magazine ads, websites, bulletins, direct mailings, marketing and r&d staffs, trade shows, public shows, etc.. to try to determine what products and how many to make. With guaranteed sales (including support of inventory levels necessary to wait for the purchaser to make the buy decision in say, one or two years?) the new vision of the market sounds much better than it is now.....very risky for those putting up the money to initiate projects! I will be glad to put you in touch with the people in the industry who would love to tap into your line of credit!!! Charlie (as seen from BOTH sides of the fence) And BTW, yes, tooling is in the six figures range as quoted, depending on the product and the amount of previous tooling that can be utilized. No one knows the true size of the Model Railroad Market, much less the N Scale segment, but I have a hunch that the figure is a great deal more than the popularly quoted polls would seem to suggest.
Brian Ref 150-48907 Early GP38 DT&I No Number Did a quick internet search and I placed one phone call 09/17 with these results -- only one was selling at full retail ===== BLW-NJ In Stock WWW Discount Walthers-WI In Stock WWW Retail 1stPlaceHobbies-IN In Stock WWW Discount Longs Trains-CA 2 In stock Phone call Discount ========== The following dealers listed this loco but did not show it (or any other early GP38's) in stock -- that tells me their websites are not updated as yet Tex N Rails-FL WWW Discount Caboose Hobbies-CO WWW Discount N Scale Supply-CO WWW Discount ======= They're out there -- sieze the opportunity !! As Charlie V. noted, the lower priced ones will sell first. eNjoy
Hi Charlie, I do appreciate your remarks because you have a vantage point few of us have. It must be frustrating for you to hear us squabble about availability. With all due respect, here are all the places I've contacted looking for the engines that were produced with Black Widow paint schemes: http://www.4nscale.com/ http://www.nscalesupply.com/NScaleSupply.html http://blwnscale.com/ http://www.amherstdepot.com/trains.htm http://www.alliedmodeltrains.com/index.html http://www.hurricane.net/~trains/index.html http://www.central-hobbies.com/products/nscale.html http://www.railroadjunction.com http://www.thewhistlestop.com http://www.thefreightyard.com http://www.discount-train.com/trains/n.html http://www.hobbyshopping.com/ http://www.internettrains.com/ http://members.aol.com/DAYLIGHT99/fs.html http://www.nscaledivision.com/frames_page.htm http://texnrails.com/catalog/default.asp?sid=63922848722355 http://www.hobbysmith.com/ http://www.trainsemporium.com/ http://www.tuckerstrainsupply.com/ Also, my LHS': Prestige Hobbies - Anaheim Ron's World - San Clemente Allied Model Trains - Culver City Original Whistle Stop - Pasadena Arnie's - Westminster My point is that there is NO availability of items made 3-13 years ago other than eBay and that's hit and miss. I prefer to suppost my LHS' because I like visiting them and I like the shop owners. But I've bought all the Dash 9's I can use. The transition era diesels in SP colors are hard to find and those are the ones I want to buy right now. I don't suppose there's any easy solution because you're right, manufacturers have to make a profit. As long as the keep putting out units like the F7's, SD-35's and Dash 9's I'll keep paying the price. My tough luck was that I re-entered the hobby only a few years ago and missed out on the goodies afore mentioned but the future looks very promising with MT, IM, Athearn, Atlas and others! So, I will patiently wait and hope my LHS gets some of these goodies in SP colors. Come to think of it, Norfolk seems to be pretty easy to get. Maybe I'll change flags! Nahhh
You are talking about a different subject than the one I reacted to.... non-availability of new releases. As far as I know it has been a lot longer than three years that the black widow scheme has shown up (maybe the Atlas Trainmaster is within that time period, I don't recall...) The price we pay for the continous parade of new products is that they don't (and cannot) stay around in the marketplace too long. The "goal" of a hobby shop is to make about four turns (on average) a year on their investment - their stock. This is pushed on locomotives, to be balanced off by the faster selling items such as track, scenery, etc.. The simple fact is that if a dealer has his money tied up in the display case, they can't buy the new locos. At Kato I saw this with the Mikados.... we produced what the wholesale distributors and dealers ordered...and they double and triple ordered to the point that maybe the total volume was 1/3 too many for the marketplace.... distributors and dealers had difficulty paying for all the units, and they sat in the stores at much discounted levels for four or five years. In addition, Atlas released a slug of GP7 and GP9 models right after the Mikado came out, and that produced another plug in the pipeline. We noted the decrease in sales during that period...nobody in the distribution channel had the cash to buy new locomotives, nor wanted to with so much inventory sitting on the shelves. The solution is more frequent SMALLER production runs. It is difficult to get flexible production when all or part of your production is offshore.... but it can be done. The FT models may show the way....both Intermountain and MicroTrains are geared to do monthly releases in metered quantities... they will be able to go back to the well for more units of a particular road name and paint job....if the demand is still there in the marketplace for a "rerun".....of course with different numbers to allow existing owners to buy more...nobody wants duplicates.... Some companies recognize these trends and are adjusting their production methods to accomodate the specialization and sophistication of the market. Better times are ahead. Charlie
Hi Charlie, My LHS told me recently that there is a large supply of Kato items in Illinios. He said the dealers haven't been ordering for the very reason you stated. He has at least 5 Mikado's in his display case plus several MAC's and TT GP7/9's. I've been watching to see if they move and so far they haven't. Also, the Atlas Trainmaster was the last Black Widow scheme. I hope more show up in the coming year. Sorry for the confusion. I see what you're saying now.
No problem. The Kato stuff has not been moving as well as it did when they were the only game in town. There is still a quality difference in the mechanisms but it is almost a theoretical one, not important when the wheel meets the rail. Atlas and LifeLike's improvements in features, variety, prototypes, road names have mostly overidden any advantages Kato once held. New comer E-R was able to hit a home run the first time up to the plate with their Sharknose and Bachmann, while still having to work on quality control issues, has proven they can play in the big leagues as well. Interesting times, especially with the new franchises (Athearn, Intermountain and MicroTrains) coming into the game! Charlie
Charlie, I remember I struck a nerve with you several months ago about this same sort of thing: *** "The solution is more frequent SMALLER production runs. It is difficult to get flexible production when all or part of your production is offshore.... but it can be done. The FT models may show the way....both Intermountain and MicroTrains are geared to do monthly releases in metered quantities... they will be able to go back to the well for more units of a particular road name and paint job....if the demand is still there in the marketplace for a "rerun".....of course with different numbers to allow existing owners to buy more...nobody wants duplicates.... Some companies recognize these trends and are adjusting their production methods to accomodate the specialization and sophistication of the market. Better times are ahead." *** As someone who wants to see manufacturers thrive so we continue to get good product, I can say that the "rerun" approach is long overdue. I don't think any of us want manufacturers to glut the market with more product than necessary, then suffer the consequences of low sales compared to volume produced. We (I) just want to be able to buy it again at a later date - even if it is a more recent version. This is where the "rerun" seems to be the best solution. I know you know your stuff more than me, and I respect that, but like I said the last time I went down this road....a photographer always keeps his negatives so he can make reprints. I would think these manufacturers could practice this principal to some degree. Maybe the ones who figure out a way to do this will be the survivors in the long run. Off my soapbox now.
Charlie, I think more can be done to maximize sales of a model, but opportunities are lost, as simple as not putting the right number on a unit. I have stated this before but I will re-interate, and yes, I would volunteer to help a manufacture out. First, the Bachman N consolidation. It has come out in CP, so who cares, so what. Well, a lot of Canadians care. Will I rush out to buy it; probably not. But what would have made me buy it? Well if they had put the number 3716 on it I would have bought it immediately. Why? Well that very engine sits in BC Rail (with a not very bright future for a steamer that still runs). But the 3716 has been pulling excursion trains for BC Rail for a long time, many many years. Now it is my personal belief that most Americans don't care what number is on the CP N consolidation as they don't have an emotional attachment to it. They will only care that the number was authentic and it did indeed pull freight, which the 3716 did in its youth. It was build in 1911 or 12 (memory is failing me here). If Bachman had given it that number, hundreds more would have gone out the door immediately. The cost would have been the same. Now lets at Intermountain. They are going to produce F units. Lets say they put out a Maroon and Grey F unit for CP. Will I rush out to buy it? Nope, wrong era. But could they do something to make me want to rush out and buy it? Yep!! They could give it the same number as the F7 unit used to pull the CP business train that runs across Canada today. Then I couldn't buy it fast enough, I could then run a business train with an F7 on my layout, even though I am a contemporary modeler. Again, will Americans care what number is on it? In the great majority of cases - No! If I were advising at these companies, the first question I would ask is: is this (I am refering to older - perhaps retired equipment) engine running anywhere in North America as an excursion engine, or in a museum, or doing some other duty. That is the number I would give it. When I buy contemporary stock, I won't buy it unless the number is real. If I buy a Kato SD90 for CP, that number have better existed. I did buy a number of SOO SD60's (atlas) and I regretted it immediately after purchase, because they hadn't come out to BC. Now I don't regret it because they are all over the place. As for limited runs, I find the stock is brought in (I am assuming popular items), sold, it disappears and then re-appears at shows, on the dealer's shelf after some one has gotten rid of it; or whatever. Because of the prices in Canada, many of the engines I buy are "second" hand. But often the person has detailed them or custom painted them, and they are better than the original, at a cheaper price. So I don't go crazy if something is brought in and I don't have money for it at the time.
Personally, as an American, I don't see the line that separates American rail from Canadian rail. To me it's North American railroading. I think if a manufacturer is going to produce a product for a detail oriented hobby like ours, they should get the numbers right. Also, I strongly agree with you that the mfg's should do a little research to see what historical significance the road numbers have. For instance, 4449 is synonymous with the Southern Pacific. 5430 is synonymous with BNSF (Metrolink collision). Sorry, couldn't come up with something better on the spur of the moment! But you see what I'm saying. Locomotives, especially steam, have personalities, some famous, some infamous. I think the numbers should reflect that whenever possible. Just my humble opinion.
I don't think they should use all famous locomotive numbers. That is especially true when a crew memeber is injured or killed on a unit. It still irks me that CSX renamed the Spirit of Cumberland. If they did number that way, than every CSX SD40-2 would be #8888 and every Amtrak P42 would be #154. I am very for manufacturers selling unnumbered units with a sheet of many decal numbers. If they want to include famous numbers on there for those that want them, that's fine, but on the other hand if modelers want less famous units running around, that should also be fine.
My point wasn't to label ALL the units with one number, just make that number available if it's suitable. As far as BNSF 5430, I only used that example because I couldn't think of anything else at the moment. I'm not saying that KATO or ATLAS should use 5430. Guess I should have used a better example. If CSX SD-40-2 #8888 has an interesting history ( I don't presume to know what it is) then wouldn't you want at least one with that road number? I do like your point about a sheet of decals provided they're easy to apply to the locos.
Let's just assume for a minute that I was a nit-pick ( ). CSX #8888 is the infamous "run-away" (sic) engine in Ohio. Now, just about everyone in the East knows this engine, and that for almost it's whole life it was in hump service in Walbridge, Ohio. If I modeled CSX in 'Bammer I'd have no use for an Ohio-only engine. That being said, modelers are making great strides in kitbashing and scratchbuilding so we don't all have the same kit-built structures on our layouts. Along those lines, why would we all want the same engine on our layouts?
