“Orders in 4Q21 increased ~297% y/y to 13,477 railcars vs. 3,397 cars in 4Q20 and are up ~57% sequentially from 8,607 cars in 3Q21,” notes KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Steve Barger. “That implies the highest quarterly order number since 4Q18’s 19,955 railcars. The industry delivered 8,161 railcars in the quarter, higher than the 6,216 railcars delivered in 4Q20 and lower than last quarter’s 8,298 figure. The backlog now stands at 42,993 railcars, up from last quarter’s level of 37,779 railcars. We note there were 102 net cancellations implied in the backlog this quarter, primarily within boxcars. Industry book-to-bill came in at 1.65x, higher than last quarter’s figure of 1.04x and above 4Q20’s 0.55x. In the quarter, respective book-to-bill for tank and non-tank activity was 0.18x and 2.28x , vs. 0.33x and 1.28x, respectively, in 3Q21. “Freight orders totaled 13,033 railcars in the quarter vs. 7,901 non-tank cars in 3Q21. Covered hoppers totaled 4,388 railcars, or 33% of the total orders, vs. last quarter’s 35%, with mid-cube covered hoppers representing the majority of orders at 2,204 cars, vs. 2,350 railcars in 3Q21. Orders for large-cube and small-cube covered hoppers were 2,184 and 0, respectively, vs. 630 and 48 cars, respectively, in 3Q21. Industry orders for tank cars totaled 444 vs. 3Q21 orders for 706 tanks. Together, tank and covered hoppers accounted for ~36% of total orders in the quarter vs. ~43% last quarter. “Total deliveries of 8,161 railcars were up ~31% y/y, and down ~2% sequentially. Tank deliveries totaled 2,450, while non-tank deliveries totaled 5,711 in the quarter. That implies 4Q21 tank deliveries increased ~10% y/y and increased ~15% sequentially, while Freight deliveries increased ~43% y/y and were down ~8% sequentially. On current deliveries, we think the 42,993-car backlog implies ~5.3 quarters of theoretical production visibility. The tank backlog decreased to 10,422 cars vs. 13,453 in 3Q21. The Freight backlog increased ~34% to 32,571 railcars from last quarter’s 24,326 railcars. Concentration of car types in the current backlog has shifted more toward non-tanks, with tanks accounting for ~24%, and covered hoppers ~29%.” Detailed ARCI statistics compiled by RSI using data from North American freight railcar builders are available to subscribers with a full breakdown by car type, including pressure and non-pressure cars, several categories of hopper cars, as well as other car types including boxcars, flat cars, and gondolas. Learn more about accessing ARCI statistics. The post Freight Car Orders Soar: ARCI appeared first on Railway Age. Continue reading...
