I was wondering how many people into model railroading have not changed to DCC. The reason is not important. That is a whole different question. I was just curious to see what type of market there is for DCC makers.
Your question is unanswerable. However, we could guesstimate and assume that there are perhaps 300K occasional to frequent users of either method in N. America. We'll leave purely toy train sets of any kind out and deal with the people who would go to a hobby shop to purchase a model of some kind representing a steam or diesel locomotive, who would purchase his own track lengths and turnouts, and who would wire up at least a rudimentary 4X8 or switching puzzle layout...and all the way up to clubs or museums. I would guess that about 60-70% are still die-hard (and perfectly happy, thanks...) users of DC in its various guises up to the present...including some pretty advanced and nifty stuff rivalling DCC quite well. With a grey zone of error, about 15%, that leaves perhaps 20-25% of all users, of the types I suggested we take into consideration, who are in the process of converting or who have converted.
Not being curious as to why makes the answer moot in point. One can only estimate how many have or have not tried, moved toward or installed DCC. I have one locomotive that is DCC and the others (to many to list here and I've lost track of just how many) are and will most likely remain Analog DC. I wired my layout to DPDT specifications so I can switch from DCC Cab A to Analog DC Cab B. It works out great and I get to run anything I want anytime I want.
The 'market' is basically ALL model railroaders in the world, since even supposedly die-hard analogue DC (DHADC) people could potentially be converted. That market can be refined by applying some kind of filter based on expectation of a sale, but what level you place that at heaven knows. The market certainly includes both current DCC users, who often upgrade or add to their systems, as well as converts, and of course the OEM market which sells into virtually all areas including even the DHADC as new models are increasingly shipped with decoders as standard.
I do not have an operating layout since I haven't had a place to build one for a long time, but do intend to build one as soon as I can get established. I own a Digitrax Chief radio DCC system and of my collection of about 110 loco's, probably about 20% have decoders ready to install or in them.
I am in N scale and almost 100% DCC. Layout is DCC, I have a DC/DCC test loop for running new locomotives, then installing and testing the decoders. With occupancy detection, statioanry decoder on switch motors and now looking at signaling.
