I haven't seen my issue yet, but I would agree. Basement layouts can work in any scale. It would be nice to see some smaller layouts to which most of the participants in this hobby (and scale) could realistically aspire. Basements are particularly problematic, since we don't usually have them here in DFW (due to our soil type which expands and contracts a lot) and to me, one of the strongest advantages of N scale is how much one can do in a small space. Don't get me wrong, I like seeing all the big layouts and plans here as much as anyone. But especially when starting out, how many of us have/had the ability and desire to dedicate an entire floor of our house to a hobby? I think it's more useful (and more promotional) to provide examples of layouts that consume a practical amount of space for newcomers. As far as a room-sized layout, I would like to see more layouts in bedrooms that are still usable as a (perhaps guest) bedroom. Are we unintentionally discouraging newcomers that might think they need much more room to enjoy the hobby than is really necessary, especially for a newcomer? Is the market already telling us as much, given the best-selling DCC systems are those that are optimized for small layouts and small budgets?
Got my issue today. Without a doubt, a nice promo for N scale. The layouts are big to be sure but a lot of HO'ers are probably envious. And isn't that a good thing to even out the market share of the respective scales? Speaking of which, I am somewhat skeptical of the stated distribution among the scales of 78% HO, 20% N and 2% O gauge. Around these parts O gauge seems to be bigger than N gauge although I understand out west N is bigger than O. But where is S scale? I'm seeing more and more S scale also.
I didn't think their math worked either. I won't be having the MR editors do the math on my helix grades! I agree O has made a comeback, and there must be at least 1% in S scale and another 1% in Z. I would guess it is 70% HO 20% N 10% O, Z, and S. And, overall it was a great issue, which I don't say every month. But with a large focus on N and scenery, how could it not be one of my favorite issues?
Keep in mind that MR gets their numbers by polling their subscribers. It makes good sense that 78% of MR’s subscribers primarily model HO scale. MR is primarily an HO magazine with some N and very little of all the other scales. If Classic Toy Trains polled their subscribers the results would likely be 78% O, 20% S and 2% other scales. I don’t think anyone has accurate information on the number of model railroaders and the scales they model. When you see numbers take them with a good sized grain of salt.
Very good points. I believe a producer survey (annual $ sales per scale) is probably the best hope at an unbiased survey. But even it would be biased towards bigger, more expensive products (an O scale loco costs more than an HO or N scale, so $ in O sales does not represent the same utility as a $ in HO or N scale.) But a producer survey would more accurately represent participation in multiple scales by the same consumer. On the other hand, it probably under-represents established modelers who are active participants, yet not necessarily still purchasing as many new items. And what about comparing Unitrack with hand-laid track users? There are no perfect measurements.
Good points, Andy. Comparing sales in dollars can be misleading. I just checked Trainworld (an advertiser here) and three comparable engines are: Atlas N GP40 with DCC and sound $190 Atlas HO GP40 with DCC and sound $215 Lionel Legacy GP30 with command control and sound $525 N and HO are fairly close in price but O is more than double the price of HO. I think a good indicator of the number of sales would be reflected in the number of products made in each scale by a manufacturer that makes all 3. Atlas and Athern make both HO and N so they should give a good look into how many sales there are in each scale. I haven't looked at a catalog of their products recently but I think they make quite a bit more HO than N which would seem to indicate that they sell more HO than N. Atlas also makes O but they are not a major player like Lionel and MTH. When MTH was making HO they made a lot more O than HO but I don't think that's a good indication of popularity of the 2 scales since MTH was not a big player in HO. It's kind of like Kato with HO and N. Kato makes a lot more N than HO but you we can't draw any conclusions about the popularity of each scale from that. My gut feeling is that there are more HO modelers than N but not by a 4 to 1 ratio. It may be 2 to 1. There are a lot of 3 rail O gaugers, maybe as many as HO guys. There is no way to know for sure.
Manufacturers avoid releasing proprietary data about their sales because it gives their competition an advantage. Also, do you measure sales by unit volume or by dollar amount? Unit may tell you how popular a scale is, but profit is what matters most to manufacturers.
The manufacturers would like to keep their production numbers private but is that really possible these days? Back in the day when manufacturer's production was more 'in house' it was possible. Back then manufacturers actually over produced and actually maintained an inventory. One could get really good deals on overstocked items. I picked up twelve LifeLike FA/B 1's at $14.00 each when LifeLike had that fire in their warehouse and subsequently sold their model RR business to Walthers. But today with the production facilities centered, for the most part, in one or a few places in Asia and the 'manufacturers having to reserve production time, everyone knows the minimum orders required and can calculate quantities. All this made easier by the pre-order system and the elimination of inventory. The manufacturers are all cognizant of the ground rules set by the production facility. Therefore, the calculations are not that difficult.
About a year ago, I had the opportunity unity to speak at length to the person who runs the brick & mortar operation (at least) of a dealer who advertises here. That person told me plainly that N scale is the only scale that is growing in sales; the others are in decline. Didn’t ask if it was unit sales or dollars or both. Nope, not going to tell who, either. I like having “inside sources” in many fields of endeavor, and I keep them by not burning or outing them, and by not pushing for too much info at a time. I look at other purely anecdotal occurrences as well: Both Kato and BLI have put significant chips on the table in going for UP Big Boy production in N, encroaching on what had been exclusively Athearn’s domain. BLI has further increased its wager by coming forth with the Challenger, doubling down on stepping into Athearn’s world. And they’ve been leading the charge in increasing variety in N steam over the past few years. Anecdotal? Yep. Are they cherry picking? Absolutely. The proof whether this means anything in the big picture of N Scale will be whether or not these efforts at expanding offerings continue, and if other manufacturers follow suit in the coming years.
Even that "inside story" has variables... I don't expect and won't ask for the answer to a question that immediately popped into my head: was N Scale sales increasing in general by the source's estimation overall, or just at the shop that your source looks after? Or both? Just a rhetorical question. For example, with the demise of the retailer and e-tailer affectionately known here as "woo woo woo," all else being equal, that volume has to go somewhere. With respect to Big Boys, there are several different scenarios that come to mind... well, to my mind, anyway... One doesn't end well... I think immediately of the suboptimal situation set up by both Micro-Trains and Intermountain bringing FT diesels to market almost simultaneously. No, an FT doesn't have the instant recognition that a Big Boy has, but it also comes in a lot more than just one roadname. Even now, going towards 22 years after the first MTL release of the FTs, try getting MSRP for them in the aftermarket. (Or more than that; file under "More eBay Humor" please.) Another ends really well if you're a producer... there's so much interest in them that both BLI and Kato blow through their limited runs-- however many that is, and we'll never know-- with demand left unmet. And there are plenty of scenarios in between. It also seems to me that many items that could be made in N Scale have already been made. Will, for example, the new Rapido Extended Vision Cabooses relegate the Atlas versions to the Bargain Bin... to say nothing of the Bachmann "entry level" versions and other brands' offerings?
Immaterial, because: 1. Because the demand will be met elsewhere. 2. “Valdemoort” went out of business some nine months after my story took place, therefore, it is not a variable in what I related. Of course you asked. No need to be coy, or to come across as daring me not to answer. An answer there is, however. Do you want it or not? Do I counter likewise and “neither ask nor expect” an answer to the FT situation that you recall: was it carried out 22 years ago according the now industry-standard preorder-driven business model? I really don’t want to engage in this manner. Of course you can know, if you pay attention - as I said, you’ll know by watching what the manufacturers do in coming years. If BLI and Kato commission second runs in a few years? You’ll know. If they don’t? You’ll know. Same thing with other manufacturers: Does Athearn step up to the plate, and shore up the gaps between their previously unchallenged flagship N offerings, and the competing offerings now on the table? Or do they just hunker down and continue on without anything new or improving their existing lines? Bachmann can be evaluated in the same light. Same goes for other manufacturers. You can know. Sooner or later, you’ll know.
