He debunks many of the negative myths in the Hobby - You'll have to buy it to read it all, but here is a summary _ Hobby is graying - Other hobbies have similar profiles, nothing new. No new kids playing with trains to make future modelers - Think Thomas the Tank and also watch kids faces light up at train shows. No talent required - Athern blue boxes have been around since any of us got in the hobby Too Expensive - Compares to a Toyota Corolla he bought in '72 - both have gone up in price by a factor of 7 and both have similar upgrades in quality (standard air in toyota, standard MT couplers for freight cars, better paint, and trim in both!) Finally, he states that N scale is underreported at 15%, based on his experience. I agree with every point Charlie made, and commend the article. Now, I wonder why this hasn't been discussed here. Is it just human nature to look for the bad in something, and don't let anything positive dissuade us? Yes, an aging owner of MDC decided to sell his business, and once again, the hobby is coming to the end of the proverbial line, no? [ 16. June 2004, 13:31: Message edited by: r_i_straw ]
I think you summed it up pretty well. Bad news sells, so we are bombarded with it in the media. So is it a wonder that the media's influence carries over into something like a hobby forum? I like it far more when the topics are about people talking about, asking about, or showing off their MRR work. But unfortunately, negative speculative discourse is always a popular pastime that seems to suck us all into its enticing hold.
Bruce, Thanks for agreeing. Yes, I will keel over the day the headlines scream, "Everything OK Today!"
Awwww, come on guys - everybody knows the sky is falling! (at least that's what certain folks have been saying since I got into this hobby 30+ years ago). Personally, I think things have never been better in this hobby, and it is gonna get even better!
Yes, my friend say my sky is falling, too. I guess I should have used a better fastening method on my backdrops......
Well, I have my magazine. Have just been too busy paying the bills, to sit down and give it a thorough reading. I agree with his points. Especially the under reporting of participation percentage for N scale. There are some brick and mortar shops, and areas stuck in the dark ages. But that does not indicate a general lack of interest in N. Just a lack of willingness by those specific retailers. Boxcab E50
He forgot to mention Brio. Not only are the simple wood trains very popular, they have given us a new term to add to the model railroad lexicon. Instead of 0-5-0 switching some of us have been using the term "Brio" as a verb to describe moving a train by hand power. "Hey Bob, Brio that stock train out of the siding for me."
Why would anyone be surprised that the profile of the hobby is graying if the population as a whole is graying? We all know about the baby boom (not just the Bellamy Brothers), and it skews all kinds of demographic observations. The fact that teens don't get into model railroading doesn't spell doom, in and of itself, either. I didn't spend a minute or a dollar in the hobby till I turned 40. Same with a few other fellas I know. Personally, I only know N scale, which looks healthy from where I’m sitting. Here and at the Atlas forum, N scale is the dominant scale. Think about that for a moment. There are more posts from a scale purportedly only 20% of the total market than there are of the scale that represents 70% (or thereabouts). Furthermore, when I read those posts, I see many N scalers who are still closet modelers – no layout yet, which leads me to believe there’s still a large pent-up market to fuel future sales. There’s another, more subtle, reason driving N scale growth. Both here and at the other electronic N scale forums, we’re seeing more and more “modeling.” Guys such as Verne, Randy, Chris, Mike, Ron, Dan, Pete and others are showing us week after week what’s possible in N scale. These are the new wave of master modelers. Unlike the NMRA, the plebs are the judges, and with a twist – the plebs are beginning to imitate the masters. More and more we see pictures of locomotives and rolling stock being detailed by “ordinary modelers” (not to insult anybody, please ). This adds intellectual challenge, emotional gratification, enthusiasm and motivation, all leading to more time, and dollars, spent in the hobby by those in it. Those manufacturers who have made N scale a priority seem to be healthy. Micro-Trains and Deluxe Innovations are the only "mainstreamers" that are exclusively N scale that I can think of off the top of my head, and they're healthy as far as I know. Atlas has made a major commitment to N, and each month they keep coming back for more. To a man, the people in the industry or trade that I’ve talked to (all in N) smile broadly. So… vibrant dialogue and healthy sales tell me N scale is doing just fine, thank you. HO may be another story. The manufacturers who made HO their mainstay may not be quite as prosperous as those who committed to N. (No names, no pack drill.) The bastion icons of HO, Model Railroading magazine and the NMRA, are either in decline or in introspective stagnation. That may be what “observers” are seeing. Part of the reason, in my opinion, is N scale flies “under the radar” to some degree, as Charlie V. astutely pointed out. Our mouthpieces are electronic and our magazines are scale-specific. People looking at the HO-dominated media and organizations don’t hear the dialogue and don’t see the growth. If you don’t know where to look, you won’t see N scale, and therefore, the green and healthy undergrowth in the garden. So... I see progress and good things. I hear only positive reports from the few insiders I know. And this is a declining hobby? Someone, please tell my wallet that!!!
Interesting point about the relative irrelevance of whether or no teenagers are involved in the hobby. I didn't spend a dime on model railroading as a hobby until I was 46, just to illustrate the point.
Another thought or two. The "surveys/polls" that lead to the misconclusions about N scale, and it's relative percentage in model railroading, are conducted in non-scale specific publications. Which are heavily dominated by HO subscribers. So results are naturally skewed. Beyond that subscriber base, horribly inaccurate. As such, these "surveys/polls" are actually worthless. It's interesting to note that HO seems to be the only scale without their own specific publication! If one exists, I've been model railroading over 45 years, and have never heard of it... .... O, S, Z, N (2!), G, Live steam, all have magazines........ As far as graying goes, many of us took a hiatus from model railroading of youth, to waste time and money on chasing potential spouses. Plus other frivolous stuff such as cars. I see no difference today. In fact, if anything, this is even more widespread. Does it really matter when someone gets into our hobby? As long as they do, that's all we need! Boxcab E50
Yes, my dear friends, the hobby is in decline, especially N scale. 20 years ago when I was a poor teenager first getting into N scale, I could go to the hobby shop and buy a Bachmann GP40 or a Bachmann F7. Two years later my choices didn't go up much. Nowadays, there's so much new stuff being produced that my wallet can't keep up, and I'm still spending a couple thousand a year on trains! I read a report somewhere that the average age of the videogamer is also going up, and the industry is trying to appeal more to younger players. It's not just us. There's been a few buyouts in our hobby. MDC was bought by another company who feels they can make money with it- the owner didn't have to close shop because he was in a dying industry. Model railroading will be around a looooong time. PS The belief our hobby is greying isn't helped by the World's Greatest Hobby campaign having an old guy pictured in their ads. Just a thought...
...Micro-Trains and Deluxe Innovations are the only "mainstreamers" that are exclusively N scale... Micro-Trains dabbles in Z as well.
Hehe... Yeah, you have a point there. Maybe they are going for that loving grandfather image? I do have to admit it's a far better depiction than some of the characters I've seen wandering around at train shows.
One point Charlie made that I failed to post - track sales in N are booming, suggesting that latent potential is being realized right now! Yes, I'll bet an NSR survey would show about 99.9% of readers are in N scale. However, its not impossible that some HOers read it for the content, either..... As for WGH spokespeople, hell it ought to be a young supermodel, or at least a girl as attractive as they put on those RC magazines! A new slogan, "Come for the trains, stay for the babes?" That would get a few teenage boys in the hobby, no?
Jeff, A "mutual acquaintance" of ours was discussing that exact idea with me this past weekend. I noticed that RC mag at the top of the rack (magazine rack, that is) and we came up with that same conclusion. 'Course, that's not a very "PC" viewpoint to have, not that there's anything PC about our Lunch"N"Crowd anyway, right?! But I agree, kids aren't a hard core 100% indicator. Plus, I think we have a new crop of Thomas and Brio tikes that have been programmed correctly so they'll pick up the slack, if there is any.
I agree with Charlie about the unscientific way the polls are taken and the pro HO skew that is put on the results. One recent poll that I had read in one of the "big" publications touted how less than 3 in 10 replies to a survey were N scale, therefore less than 30% of the market deals in N scale. I thought to myself, "What a bunch of hogwash!" We all know that there is a far greater market share in N scale! If I were an N scale advertiser in this publication, I think I would be asking myself "If less than 3 in 10 subscribers are modeling in N scale, am I getting my advertising dollar's worth out of this publication?"
Doofis - Hmm, maybe its because I live in Dallas, where conspiracy theories are abundant, but I wonder if you are on to something, but in reverse. Is it possible that they have a bias towards over representing their HO readership, because they can charge more HO manufacturers more money based on readership? Do they know that (absent of another HO specific mag, although, Mainline Modeler has to qualify) that the major N scale ads are moving anyway?
Doug, Not that we can't talk about it at our Train N lunch tomorrow, especially since our mutal acquaintence has informed us of his absence, but, how was the State Convention last week?
