Analysis of the market: large successful corporations that introduce hundreds of new products do upfront research to determine if a market for a new product exists and/or if there is an need for a product what is not currently being met. As far as I know, this process does not include a requirement for customers to reserve or pre-order the product. Is reserve or pre-order of products a unique feature of the model railroad industry?
I also forgot to mention that I don't participate in the Pre Order process. What it is also causing which hasn't been mentioned. The situation when you missed or didn't participate in the Pre order deal and when they come out with those built in extra count at distributors; some folks buy up the extras to sell on Ebay at a hefty premium which either causes you to pay that premium or do without. Which kind of eliminates the young buyers and those on a limited budget. Just a thought
Absolutely NOT... in fact... it may discourage further production of products if the expectation for low sales are indicated on numerous items. I don't like the pre-order system either. BUT... at the same time we are NOT being held accountable to pay for items in advance either. If this system fails to generate enough sales... then we may end up with a WORSE scenario; either, very few new announcements and/or... having to pre-order and pre-pay.
I am kind of in the middle here. Pre orders have never killed me, and I am happy to go along with the preorder system in most cases. I am happy as a model railroader, but have experienced shortages and missed preorders. The biggest problem has been trying to build a big layout when Atlas C55 was scarce, but I kind of enjoyed my national search for elusive No. 7 right hand turn outs (always sell out faster than left for some reason) Frankly, if I don't ever get my next IM loco preorder (Dakota, Minn and Eastern SD 40-2, so I am thinking it might be one of IM's "cancelled due to lack of interest" items) it won't be the end of the world, it will merely be a minor hole in my collection, but I have enough to still run things. DME is a minor player on my IHB layout anyway. BTW, there are workarounds to pre-orders. Many of our favorite vendors here seem to order at least a few extra and are worth a first try, even if you miss the pre-order. I don't even mind the small price increase that comes from missing pre-orders (like at Wig Wag) and understand it. My current favorite option to avoid pre-orders is to use the woo woo woo site. As far as I know, they don't accept reservations (at least on line, maybe they do in the store) and order plenty of stock based on a guess, I suppose. My understanding is that they have a wholesale division, so they get more than the typical LHS. I mark my calendar for possible release dates, then go online and order the day they come out, if I can afford it (and sometimes when I can't.....). EBay is another source as all LHS that are on line and do order extra for stock post them pretty quickly. Inkaneer, Just out of curiosity, do you or have you owned a small business? You seem pretty hard on those guys. I run a small, now home based business, and put food on the table for 37 years doing it, so I sympathize (mine is not trains, but golf related, another of my big hobbies) with the plight. One thing that struck me is Pud's implying that these guys don't borrow to create then next product, they use cash on hand. Sounds like they are ultra conservative financially, or possibly have difficulty in getting a credit line (When times are tight, banks may require $50K in CD's in their bank to loan $50K) or a banker just saying "You want a loan to make what?............model trains you say?" I suspect Atlas and Kato can do that, but most can't. I haven't seen statistics in a while, but 80% of businesses don't last five years, and about 99% of small businesses are probably undercapitalized and ALWAYS 3 months from going broke. Many have difficulty getting any credit line at all that would get them over the rough patches. And yet, individual dreamers like this have basically created a large chunk of the American (and many other nations) economies. And, we benefit from it. If we put strict capitalization standards on MRR mfgs., there would be none. There would be no FVM, no BLMA, etc. And those seem to do pretty well, and the younger generation propelling model railroading as a bonus.
I have not been preordering, primarily because of the stories about items that were announced, sometimes repeatedly, with constant slippage of delivery dates for multiple years. I am CONSIDERING pre-ordering a few things from REPUTABLE hobby stores that are to be provided by manufacturers that already have track records for QUALITY as well as TIMELY DELIVERY. I can undestand manufacturing slippage of a few months, since I am willing to wait a while for quality assurance. But I am not willing to fund people who are not actually committed to making the produce I am ordering. I had that happen with a radar unit once for a boat. A very reputable manufcturer advertized a radar unit and interfacing chart plotter. I bought the radar with the plan to come back for the chart plotter that was "not in stock." Actually it was NEVER produced, and I would not have spent thousands on THAT radar if I had known that. Once burned, twice shy. As I read these posts, I am struck by the credibility that Puddington puts on a pre-order "system" that appears to not have any real commitment by the customers, except for the pre-order deposits that some collect well in advance. Why is that different from a survey? The only difference I can see is that maybe it puts the LHSs and distributors on the hook to pay the manufacturers, if that is indeed the case. Does that have anything to do with the drastic loss of so may LHSs? Are they the ones who are really at risk? As for the business model of "making money", I think that mind-set is part of the problem for most businesses today. In the past, there was a lot more thought about making a LIVING by doing something you love to do. Getting rich by doing it was NOT generally the primary objective. Today, that thought seems to be lost, especially on investers who demand profits in the short-term, and are willing to trash a company in the long-term to get them NOW. I am sure that makes it hard on start-ups. But, it would still seem to me that manufacturers who cater to a HOBBY would understand that they are in the business of providing a pleasure, not a necessity. The ones that DEMONSTRATE an understanding of their customers are the ones who will succeed best in the long-run. STARTING a small business has never been easy, and there has never been a guaranteed formula for success, except maybe the passion of the entrepreneur to make his product the best.
I agree that from Pud's post, the LHS seems to take a lot more risk than the distributors and maybe as much as the mfgs. It probably is a reason we are losing so many of them. I have only declined one pre-order after making it at the LHS - that BNSF SD60 experimental paint scheme, which was just too goofy for me. The LHS took it back with a smile as per their policy, but they do note that some customers are frequent pre-order but not purchase types, and they have to be just as wary of us (also notes that the kind of customer who declines to buy, or even shoplifts isn't a teen, but older guys who look like most of us, seemingly with a "I bought so much here, I am entitled to some free stuff" attitude. It ain't easy being an LHS, and I am sure those who pre-order, but decline to buy are just another reason why. Sorry to say, but the statement above, "As for the business model of "making money", I think that mind-set is part of the problem for most businesses today. In the past, there was a lot more thought about making a LIVING by doing something you love to do. Getting rich by doing it was NOT generally the primary objective." This laughable and so wrong on all counts. First, business does (and always has) need to make a profit, and as shown, most of those go right back into the next product, with the President/Owner probably just taking a salary not at all in line with what he spends. I don't think ANYONE in the model railroad biz is rich, at least from that business. In fact, I bet nearly all start out as hobbyists, like Walthers, Kalmbach, BLMA, etc. Maybe you want them all to show us their tax returns before you buy anything? LOL In short, tough biz, with most (like Pud) in it for the love of trains, and struggling to make a living. I think a few of us need to look beyond our own little personal world and see it from the other side before moaning and groaning about the very folks who help us enjoy the hobby. Its not that I am unsympathetic to those here who probably stretch their hobby dollar a lot to participate. Most of us are also "undercapitalized" when it comes to what we want to spend on model railroading. Is the system perfect? Not saying that. Probable best way to keep it going in a tough biz environment? Most likely, so I think we have to live with it.
Do I like preorders: No Do I preorder: Usually no, however I have on some things that I wasn't willing to miss out Is there a better way: No, not unless the MFR is willing to use a different system (like just making what they say they are going to make) I STILL have on preorder the IM Chateau Martin Wine reefers (announced by IM 4 years ago) and even IM doesn't list this as something that they are going to run...but my preorder has yet to be cancelled. Concor had people waiting for YEARS for the cab forward that they never made (and you had to pay a deposit if I remember correctly). The U-50 and Veranda turbines have been on preorder for at least 6+ years (even their website says that they will be out 'late 2013'). http://www.con-cor.com/033021.html Do I like preordering: No. Do I have a choice: no. If a MFR decides what they are going to run (Concor and Intermountain) and they don't get enough preorders, they just don't run that item. Until THEY choose to do things differently, there's NOTHING we can do.
Bottom line for me.... As a consumer...My 'hobby' will NOT be held hostage by manufactures and a flawed 'preorder' system and items supposedly being "cancelled due to lack of interest" because they rely strictly on said flawed preorder system to make manufacturing decisions. There are other alternatives if one thinks about it for a minute. JMO...YMMV
Inkaneer, I think you somehow deleted your post regarding my quote. Interested in the response. MTNTrainman, I have seen a few suggestions here, like Inkaneer suggesting FB or website surveys (which I have seen a few of) and Pud saying those rarely turn out to be accurate. I have seen that in other areas, and you usually get a more accurate response if you are semi required to plunk down cash to back up your word. Other than that, I have seen few detailed thoughts as to alternatives, so I am curious as to exactly what you might be thinking along these lines. Also, while I understand the strengths and flaws of the pre-order system, saying you are "Held hostage" is a bit over the top, and yet representative of how emotional we can get over these crazy little trains we love! I mean, if you never had an SD40-2 in DME (my current example) its hard to be angry over thinking you almost had someone make it for you, isn't it? BTW, any anger directed at not producing a product in a timely manner might be misdirected at the pre-order system. I recall a cartoon in MR decades ago where the mfg is at his desk saying something like "We have been taking orders for ten years now, I suppose we ought to at least start the drawings for that 2-10-2". Not a new problem, but was formerly contained to brass makers for the most part, who in those days, made maybe 1000 brass pieces against Athearn's tens of thousand blue box. I think as the loco market declines to maybe 4-5,000 of each model (down from 3-4X that pre-2000) those kinds of problems are now finding our plastic makers as their volume shrinks.
Actually I was replying to Rossford Yard. I'm not sure what happened. All I know is that a rather long response somehow got lost, deleted or passed into eternity.
Some Alternatives: Kitbashing your own.... repainting... detailing... actual modeling... buying secondhand ( from people you trust and know they take good care of their models)... buy off EckBay...its not for the faint of heart... *** buying from manufactures that dont use the preorder system. *** Things we have been doing for years and has proved to be successful ;-) Thats just a few off the top of my head real quick. If a model doesnt make it to market because it couldnt get past the almighty 'preorder' system...it isnt the end of the world ! In the end...you most likely WILL find and have that item you are dieing to have...before you actually die ;-) BTW...I made the 1st suggestion about FB or website polls/surveys in post #5 above ;-)
Sorry for the mis-credit there on the survey. We agree there are workarounds in most cases, and I like your old fashioned attitude, which seems largely lost in the ready to run world. Maybe decal printing can get more feasible at home, rather than relying on Micro scale to make just what you want. And 3D pringting should be able to bring back the detail parts biz. Could be a great cottage industry for us. That said, even if one doesn't choose to pre-order from such mfgs who require it, I have no problems with those who do. To each his own. And honestly, if someone is coming out with something I really need for my layout (and I have been lucky with new IHB stuff coming out mostly from Atlas, Bluford cabeese, etc.) I wouldn't have the will to not buy it. Scratch building is great, but if you are building a layout and have typical time constraints, getting some/more of it from the mfgs. is a good thing, the value overcoming any shortcomings in the current system they feel they need to implement.
And yet, the vast majority of preorder items do, indeed, come out. So to say one will never preorder is to say that you've decided not to buy New but that you'd rather prefer to buy used, or preownrd, later, and likely pay more for it. Otherwise, you're missing out on all kinds of great stuff that is coming out right now simply out of spite. I don't get it.
Have been reading this thread and pondering on this during my few minutes available to surf TB. I have only pre-ordered two items in recent years, neither of which have been produced yet. IM announced UTLX tank cars, now due this fall/winter.....maybe. And So I ordered 18 of them, not a lot by IM standards, but a lot to me! And so have been socking the pennies away to pay when and if they ever arrive at my 'local' LHS. The other was a NP A-? class conversion kit on TB from someone a few years ago. Must not have been enough interest. That being said, I do see the mfr's point of view about should we make this item. It IS a significant investment, and one that I cannot make. Being a small businessman myself, it does take a LOT of time and capitol to keep going on what is already going and selling, so finding the time to go into something new can be a premium. I suppose that finding a survey outfit and paying up front for that service must cost a bundle too. Most LHS's don't do this, but it might be a good idea for the mfr's to work with them to put together surveys of customers as to what do they want to see produced by anyone. Add this survey engine to the online retailers and combine the results and you would think that it shouldn't be too hard to figure out what is wanted. Being in touch with your entire customer base is near impossible, but finding a way to get in touch with the largest number of them would be the way to go, IMHO. Hence the survey tool. And here is where we, as the customer, have to be dead honest with them. If we say we want it and will buy it, we had best do so. However, 6-10 years of lead time is too long. Announce a cancellation for those of us who are vainly waiting for a lost before shipping, never to arrive item. Just my random thoughts over lunch. Back to slaving away.....
Would it be unreasonable for Manufacturers to give preorder updates(example: if the preorder quota is close but needs a few more before it can be send to be made)? Or tell us from the get go that unless we get X amount of orders we can't make this item?
I figure that a manufacturer can run their business any way they want to- it's their business. But, realistically, sometimes the preorder system works, and sometimes it does not. When does it work? When the manufacturer gives a very precise description of exactly what we will get- things like year it went into service, first and last use of the paint scheme, list of road specific details, etc. A realistic delivery date that takes into account the now planned for manufacturing delays and quality control. Strict quality control on railroad specific colors. Don't show detailing in the preproduction art that is not going to exist in the finished model. When does it not work? When manufacturers don't deliver on time. When the color is wrong (ACL purple on my pre-orded baggage car that was correct in the pre-order artwork, and blue when it arrived- you know who you are). When the details shown in the "artist rendering" don't exist in the actual tooling. It also fails, big time, with many customers, when they pre-order, wait 9 months to 2 years for delivery, and 2 days before it actually arrives, discount retailers have it up for sale for 30% less than the "special pre-order price."
I think you took this a little differently than I intended. TO RAISE CAPITAL these days, entrepreneurs have to deal with that mindset. Otherwise, it is the old-fashioned model of self-sustained but slow growth. The kind of slow growth where it takes a long time to build-up a large business. Where REPUTATION DEVELOPMENT is a major factor in building the business. Where MOST businesses fail instead of surviving. But, today, with most manufacturing being in China for new U.S. businesses, a lot of that is more expensive to CONTROL with respect to reputation. And, the expectation for better features jut keeps going up for new releases, because the big companies CAN do those things.
