I am happy to say that my last pre-order has shipped. It is the IM Work Train. This was the last pre-order I had on my books. Everything is clear. Now, if I want something, I will have to be more diligent in shopping on line or be able to scrounge it up somewhere. If the manufacturers aren't smart enough to take their orders and run a few extra when they do a production run, it will be their lost sales. (Most industries take their forecast, add a certain percentage to it and that becomes the production run) I have a planned hobby budget. With all the delays and unknowns about when something is really going to arrive, pre-ordering doesn't work for me. With the lack of product announcements by many of the manufacturers, not much to pre-order anyway. Last but not least, if I am meant to have it, I will get it. N Scale has lost some of it's luster for me. It is not as exciting as it used to be. I will be attending the National Train Show in a couple of weeks. I hope there is news to get me pumped up again.
Can't blame you, brother. It's a long turnaround time for some of these products, and in several cases they don't end up getting produced! It's a shame the economy has dwindled to a point where manufacturers have to send around the collection basket. I started modeling in the early 90's and let me tell you, having left andecome back ~12 years later, I see it too. No surprises anymore. Sadly for me, I am obliged to pre-order the NP stuff as it's ususally made in scarce quantity and often never sees the listings of ebay or any seller, most or all units having been preordered. Am I the only one who sometimes pines for the days before the internet, when that Model Railroader or N scale magazine brought you news of coming products, and you'd never know until the issue came what to expect? That was exciting...
I know of only one manufacturer that did not produce extra for stock and even they have changed that. The issues are not the fault of the USA companies but a changing world. Customers want more product not the same 8-12 items forever. That requires the cash flows only possible from pre-ordering and rapid turnover of inventory. Manufacturing is changing. There are currently some bumps in the road as one generation of factories matures away and another generation takes over. Without pre-orders some companies would never have been able to go into production. I never liked announcements in magazines since I was ecstatic for the Athearn PA that was announced in June for delivery in September and showed up not 3 months later but 27 months later. If you have a budget and set those funds aside each month you will always have the funds you need when the product comes in.
There are some great companies making some great things right now. I used to get excited about stand-alone products, but now it's the details that get me fired up. How can I make what I have better, or more realistic. I've reduced my engine fleet by 2/3 and I couldn't be happier. What I have now is better that any product that will be coming out in the next couple years. But that's just me...
In the old days we got Model Railroader at least 3 to 4 months later in this part of the world so new stuff was a real surprise, and then local hobby shops might get a fraction of their orders after U.S. orders seemingly were filled first. Although we hadn't yet heard the term 'pre-order' if you really wanted something you still had to ask the LHS owner to put one aside for you when they came in. As much as there are flaws in the present state of affairs I don't think I'd go back to the good old days.
"Just in time" logistics at it finest. In EVERY manufacutering sector not much "overhead" parts are being produced. It takes MONTHS to get parts that used to be "on the shelf" because it's cheaper to only have enough for the initial run and very little spare. Inventory doesn't sit it goes right out the door. You think trains are hard to get, try commercial electronics. There are only a select few companies that build the radios for Public Safety. If you want replacements you need to order them 6-8 months in advance and hope ou don't need to get more the rest of the year. Pre-orders do suck, I wished I'd ordered the BLMA spines but it is what it is.
When you say "commercial electronics", I think digital cameras and flat screen televisions. Public Safety radio consumers are probably about as common as hens' teeth, even compared to model railroad hobbyists. I can't think of any other consumer industry that operates this way. The smaller the customer base, the shorter the production runs, naturally, but dealing almost exclusively on a pre-order basis provides only a one-sided benefit - for the manufacturer - while the customer is left to simply deal with it. You can't tell me that a company can't be profitable by doing a little more to accommodate their customer base. They choosing lost sales over discounting surplus inventory a year down the road. Sorry for the rant. It just really grinds my gears when a company - or an entire industry, for that matter - starts acting like they're doing the customers a favor by selling their product at all.
Guys,Judging by the new announcements in HO I don't think the economy has much to do with it.The manufacturers is spending their tooling dollars on HO-a fast check will reveal that.. I've contacted one outfit that once boasted of its "exciting" line of future N Scale releases now tells me it will be awhile before they release any more N but in the mean time they are cranking out new HO cars.. Economy? Not likely since their HO cars averages $32.95 each.
I've cut my preordering back to about half of what I used to. I'm very glad I preordered the BLMA spine cars, as they seem to have disappeared. I also feel that I'll be happy that I preordered the FVM GP60's as I'm sure those will disappear just as fast. If I "have to have it", I'll order it. If it's just another boxcar for the fleet, I'll get one at the LHS or at a train show whenever I see it. I know that things tend to show up at the same time, and you've got a huge model bill facing you, but then you get months where nothing comes in. It balances out. I don't lose anything from preordering, and my hobby shop has never let me down as far as not getting something I ordered. I don't think the model mfgs are evil corporations out to squeeze every dollar out of our pockets. They're just trying to keep their doors open another day, and that would be pretty hard to do with a warehouse full of unsold trains.
This might venture a tad off topic.. but I think its still within the realm of the pre-order system... I've been thinking lately that the pre-order system is seriously underestimating the popularity of N Scale. It's always been assumed that HO Scale is more popular than N Scale, but, I think for several years now, that assumption has been false. Think about it... Of all the online retailers, about 80% that I know of deal in N Scale, many exclusive to N Scale! Of all the forums I've seen, the N scale sections are the most active. And again, there are even some forums exclusive to N Scale! I don't know of an exclusive HO Scale forum. Model Railroader is primarily HO Scale... but there are several different magazines exclusive to N scale! As far as I know, there are no exclusive HO Scale magazines either. How is it that all indications point to N Scale being largely more popular than HO Scale, yet certain manufacturers appear completely oblivious? How is it that HO Scale is still assumed the more popular scale when all indication points otherwise? Tying this back into pre-orders, the past few major releases relied on pre-orders, and when the product finally came in, the rest of the production was very quickly sold out meaning the lack of surplus production greatly stifled sales. Is it because of this that manufacturers still don't know just how large the N Scale market is? I'm all ears...
HO Modelers vs. N Modelers: Because the majority of the HO modelers are spending their time working on layouts and not surfing the net and participating on the forums. They deal with local shops instead of internet stores. They get their information from NMRA club meetings and model railroader. They are primarily older generation modelers who have not embraced the internet as quickly as N scalers who seem to be a more tech savy group. Pre-Orders: Too all those that don't like the pre-order system. It has it's ups and downs but from a shop persepctive, if an item doesn't sell in the first month or so, it won't sell for years. People want what is new, not the same ole, same ole over and over again. Bachmann is a company that believes in constant stock and yet their products stagnate on the shelf once the new has worn off. The 4-6-0 that everybody was jonesing for is a good example, once we sold through the first round or two, they have sat since then. It's a great little loco but demand was met and now they set collecting dust. Second and third runs of a loco never sell anywhere near what the first batch will, even when you are talking new road names and numbers. The pre-order system is keeping companies solvent that would have otherwise went under. Life Like is the perfect example of how open stocking failed. They over built every production run, only to loose their behinds 6 months later when they had stock left over setting on the shelf that was costing money to warehouse. They would dump it at a fraction of its original selling price. People got used to that pattern and quit buying when new releases came out, hoping for the big blowout sale later. A few of those type of releases and Life Like was ready to quit, the convenient fire in their warehouse and an offer from Walthers was their way out.
Is this fact or just another assumption? I see numerous members here on TrainBoard who's age can be considered the older generation modelers, most of them participating in N Scale. The local hobby shops in my area are also heavily N Scale oriented, some carrying more N than HO, others about the same. One LHS owner I was talking with said there are a few N Scalers that stop in and buy thousands of dollars of products at a time. If N Scalers are a more tech savy group, wouldn't their ambitions be delivered to manufactures more efficiently, resulting in increased N Scale production? I email Athearn/Kato/Atlas ect. directly to express interest in a product, vs telling my LHS owner, who then tells his distributor, who then tells the manufacturer. Again, how is it that HO Scale is still assumed the more popular scale when all indication points otherwise?
I pretty much consider it fact, at least in our area. We have a strong NMRA division, Division 7. The divisons monthly meeting meetings have regular attendance well over 50 members and has close to 400 paid members. They do layout tours and there are at least a dozen magazine worthy member HO layouts (many have already been in the magazines) while there are maybe 3 magazine worthy N scale layouts in town, of which only one that I know of is an NMRA member (one of them however is a member here). That one N scale NMRA member also helps on S, O and HO layouts of the other division members. He came in the shop just the other day picking up materials for an O scale structure he was building for another gentlemans layout. He is a very accomplished modeler that is comfortable using the internet (we e-mail back and forth alot), yet he has no desire to surf the forums, like many of the other members of the NMRA ranks. It is a difference in views. He doesn't have to post his latest accomplishiments to the world to be satisfied with what he has done. Most of it will only be known by him and the owner of the layout that he is helping with. As far as the comment about a few N scalers that drop a grand at a time. That is just the problem, there are "a few" doing that. There are a lot more HO scalers doing the same thing but they are buying less at a time, but more often. I'm an N scaler through and through and our shop is about an even split between HO and N. We honestly sell a little more N, just because we are the N shop in town. The other shops cater to HO and we don't see the business that goes elsewhere. The reality is, there are more HO modelers out there, they are just not nearly as vocal. I don't have a chip on my shoulder that N is the red headed step child of HO as so many do. I am happy for what we have available as it is light years beyond what was available just 10 years ago.
More HO because as far as I can tell most of the companies are run by HO modelers. The people that they do train operations with most likely are HO modelers as well. So HO is what they know. IMO. People starting or running companies would tend to make and sell what they know about, which is HO. I could be wrong though and this may have nothing to do with it.
I can understand that outlook, but how is that a specific trait of the HO scale community? Think of it as counting blue cars vs red cars on the highway. If you continually count more blue cars than red cars, how can you say that there are still more red car owners than blue car owners? By saying a red car owner has a telecommute career and therefore does not drive as often is a separate variable. How do we know there are no blue car owners who telecommute? The point I'm getting at is that it appears the numbers don't add up, not even close. By all calculations, there must be a specific trait of HO Scalers that puts their numbers much higher than their apparent existence. What is this trait, and how is it exclusive to HO Scale? Actually, this makes the most logical sense. This may very well be that "trait" that is exclusive to HO Scale! *** Again, I pulled this off topic a bit, so I'll try and tie it back in... Is the pre-order system as relied upon in HO Scale as it is in N?
Mark, How but a much more statistical example...... We all know Athearn and how much more HO they tend to produce than N scale...correct. Athearn doesn't really build to pre-order as much as you would think. They seem to have a minimum ammount they will build, if pre-orders exceed that ammount, they up thier quantities. This applies to both HO and N and it seems like the minimums are about the same for each scale. We get a quarterly "in-stock" report from Athearn of all the loco's and rolling stock that they currently have in stock. Meaning everything that has been released up to the day of the report in all scales. The HO list is usually about a page or two longer than the N scale list out of a 20 page book. Considering that Athearn produces at least 4 times as much HO as they do N scale yet their in stock list of each is roughly the same length, it would stand to reason that they are moving much more HO and it isn't hanging around in inventory as much as the N scale is. There is N scale on the last in stock list that was released over a year ago. The HO, from what I remember, was only items from the last couple months or so. This also supports Athearns claim that "N scalers don't buy enough product". (Quoted from a Rep at one of the recent shows) They are moving 3-4 times the amount of HO product as they are N scale. Now you can say, they make more HO so they are going to sell more, or the HO products they make are more popular models than their choices in N but many of their N releases mirror their HO offerings and the HO offerings always sell out first. Face it, HO is a much larger market. N is growing by leaps and bounds but we ain't there yet. You can talk about all the great new N scale companies and their offerings but even with them, not everything is a hit. Distributors are setting on large quantities of the BLMA hoppers and recent gondola release and they are starting to dump them at sale prices. Many of the Bluford shops releases are setting on distributor shelves and starting to get dumped. Exactrail seems to keep going through release upon release of their HO offerings but are still setting on N scale from last year. I'm not trying to be doom and gloom, it's just the way it is. Athearn may be right, N scalers don't buy enough or at least we still haven't reached critical mass that any release, good or bad, can be absorbed by the market. HO certainly seems to have that covered.
Tieing any scales popularity to the NMRA is a bunch of malarky ! Just because the NMRA SAYS N scale isnt popular...doesnt make it so. Those who worship at the alter of the NMRA...worship a false god. The NMRA is NOT a deity...regardless of what they think...far from it !!! The sun does NOT rise and set in the NMRA's behind !!!! Preordering is also malarky. It takes all of the risk out of the manufactures hands and puts it squarily on the consumer. When a product ISNT made because there arent enough 'preorders' to justify it...sooner rather then later a manufacturer WILL fail. The manufactures still hold to the premise the consumers are idiots ! Consumers are spending their disposable income in more diligent ways. Gotta have it versus I really need it is nothing new. Preordering has taken impulse buying out of the picture. There is nothing even on the shelf to buy because the total amount of an item was only made for the amount preordered. Before its all said and done...manufactures will soon learn that to "Live by the sword...die by the sword" has some serious consequences and meaning. When you shove enough BS down the consumers throat...they are gonna choke on it and move on to a more reliable and consumer friendly manufacturer, LHS, or Etailer. The consumers are NOT idiots. Consumer make or break a bussiness....and have LONGGGGG memories when it comes to getting the shaft !! JMHO. STILL SMILIN' :tb-smile: .
Mark, I am going from my personal experience from working in a shop. I have many, many more HO modelers that have flat out told me, they have no use for the internet. I have at least 10 customers with decent sized HO layouts underway that rely on us completely for new product announcements and we are their way to know what is available. HO modelers from my experience are either older gentleman who are not comfortable with the internet or if they are, they would rather call ask me to find a product for them because their time is more valuable spent at work or on the layout. Heck the time I have wasted here typing responses could have been much better spent working on the layout. I did at least paint two cabooses between replies. I have found I work much better if I don't turn on the computer in the trainroom. I'll freely admit I waste too much time on forums and I would be a lot farther along on many projects if I didn't post so much.
So these 10 customers speak for the entire HO populace? And once again, what makes this exclusive to HO Scale? This is not a logical connection of concrete facts that can be used towards proving a comparison between HO and N scales. Nobody here is forcing you to reply. And again, this is an invalid argument. Whats to stop me from saying N scales are just more efficient at managing their time? Post 17 is the closet to a valid proof that HO Scale may have more of a market than N. But even then, that does not provide an explanation as to why so many more online retailers support N Scale over HO.
